Before the invasion of Ukraine, the bank expected the economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
At the end of 2022, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine may fall by 45.1% compared to the previous year, and the poverty rate will increase 11 times.
Such forecasts lead World Bank.
“The invasion of Ukraine is causing catastrophic humanitarian losses and a severe economic downturn. The impact on poverty is also likely to be catastrophic, although difficult to quantify at this stage. Based on an international poverty line of 5 $.5 a day, poverty is projected to rise to 19.8% in 2022 from 1.8% in 2021, with an additional 59% of people likely to fall below the poverty line.
According to the bank, in 2023 the Ukrainian economy as a whole is expected to resume by 2.1%.
The share of the population with incomes below the actual subsistence level (national poverty line) may reach 70% in 2022 compared to 18% in 2021. In the absence of a massive post-war support package, this figure will still be above 60% by 2025.
Exports of goods and services will fall by 80%, imports by 70%, while public debt to GDP will increase from 50 .7% to 90.7%.
Inflation forecast is 15% with an increase to 19% next year.
Private consumption in Ukraine is expected to fall by 50 this year %, while the state at 10%, and capital investment is requested at 57.5%.
Recall, The country's GDP can recover by 23% in 2023 if there is a ceasefire for several months.
