Too often one was put off, “still miles away” from opening today. In the worst case, there is a risk of a 90 percent drop in overnight stays.
On Thursday, Tyrol's WK President Christoph Walser (ÖVP) made gloomy forecasts for winter tourism. One is “still miles away” from an opening, the probable end of the lockdown is shifting “constantly backwards”. In the worst case, the opening at Easter can be assumed, which would mean a fall in overnight stays of 90 percent, value added losses of 5.2 billion euros and the loss of 48,000 jobs.
“We still have February and March to save the winter season”, Walser summed up the current situation at the economic press conference, which is why it is “unrealistic that we can even bring a winter season this year”. Too often people have been put off, the prospect of the end of the lockdown on January 24th could “no longer be taken seriously”.
In any case, the development is “very, very negative”. The Tyrolean NEOS club chairman Dominik Oberhofer made a similar statement on Wednesday: “It is finally time to tell the Tyroleans that the winter season can no longer be saved”. Governor Günther Platter (ÖVP) must finally look reality in the eye.
The head of the Tyrolean Economic Policy and Strategy Department, Stefan Garbislander, also assumed a possible “total failure” at the press conference. In the best case – based on an opening in February – according to Walser, there was a drop in overnight stays of 70 percent. 37,000 jobs would be lost.
Rising unemployment is also having an impact on consumer behavior and thus overall economic output. The unemployment rate is currently eight percent, higher than it has been since 1950, reported Walser. In December, 28,000 Tyroleans were registered as unemployed, 77 percent more than in December 2019.
“Pandemic will be with us until mid-2021”
Nevertheless, there was currently no “social upheaval”, noted Garbislander, who also spoke of an “economic slump of historic proportions”. Overall, the Tyrolean economy collapsed by ten percent in 2020. In this country, the economy is disproportionately affected in the area of business-related services. Due to the dominance of the tourism industry, there was a slump of 40 percent, which corresponds to a decrease of 31 billion euros.
“2020 did not bring a lot of positive things with it, but we tried to get the best out of the companies”, summed up Walser. Much has been achieved, but there is still a need for further sharpening. The sporting goods trade in tourism areas, for example, as well as suppliers would still be massively affected, despite the measures in place. Politicians have to take action, appealed the Tyrolean WK boss.
In any case, one thing is certain: the industries are affected to varying degrees by the corona pandemic, emphasized the two WK representatives. Although the economic output of the industrial sector has declined by six percent, according to Garbislander, a rapid recovery is expected in 2021. The pharmaceutical industry is “a massive pillar at this time,” and the construction industry got through the crisis comparatively lightly in 2020. A five percent decline in exports is below the Austrian average, and an increase of five percent is expected this year.
“The pandemic will surely stay with us until mid-2021,” Garbislander was certain, in 2021 economic growth of two percent is expected, based on the current “very low level”. “2021 will not be a year of upswing,” said Garbislander, saying that it was “miles away from pre-crisis levels”. It can also be assumed that there will be bankruptcies this year. “We are assuming around 350 bankruptcies,” explained Walser, adding that many silent bankruptcies are to be expected, meaning that companies will no longer be passed on to a successor.
According to Garbislander, 2022 will be the “year of hope” in which the Tyrolean economy will take off again. “We can only hope that at some point there will still be light at the end of the tunnel,” said Walser.
