Main points
- Trump, after his successes in the Middle East, expects real concessions from Putin and may react harshly if his expectations are ignored.
- Putin no longer has any strong arguments and can only propose escalation or de-escalation of the war in Ukraine.
Donald Trump has softened his rhetoric after his talks with Vladimir Putin – he is beginning to understand that the Kremlin is just stalling for time. In a state of euphoria from his successes in the Middle East, the US president can expect real concessions and results from the Russian dictator.
If Russia ignores his expectations, Trump may react harshly – and this will turn into a problem for the Kremlin. Political scientist Igor Reiterovich expressed this opinion to 24 Kanal, noting that the American leader may not be satisfied with just another prisoner exchange.
Trump's Euphoria Could Play a Cruel Joke on Russians
After each conversation with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump's rhetoric noticeably changes – it becomes softer. This can be explained by a psychological factor: Putin has studied Trump well, literally “decomposed him into molecules.” The Kremlin knows which “buttons” to press. The American leader is beginning to realize that these games are a way to drag out time, to distract attention. This no longer suits him, so he is forced to react differently.
According to the political scientist, another conversation between Trump and Putin may take place in the near future. After that, the US President may announce that he was able to agree on another round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. However, there are serious doubts that these negotiations will bring real results – a ceasefire or the signing of a joint memorandum, as was previously discussed.
Putin will probably try again to “knock out” Trump to postpone any decisions or ease pressure on Russia. But now Trump demands a result. Especially in a situation where he is in a state of joy: supposedly, he managed to settle the situation in the Middle East. A simple prisoner exchange may no longer satisfy Trump – he needs a more serious result. For example, he can try to “push” Russia in the same way as he convinced Iran and Israel to cease fire and turn back planes.
Trump is currently experiencing such euphoria, and not an easy one, judging by everything, Igor Reiterovich emphasized.
If the Russians are indifferent to this or ignore his initiative, Trump may react in a completely different way – more harshly. And this may play a cruel joke on the Russians.
Putin has no more trump cards
In the context of Israel and Iran, Putin no longer has strong arguments. In recent weeks, Trump has publicly stated three times: “Putin offered me mediation in the Middle East, and I said, 'Sort out the war in Ukraine.'” If Trump repeats this thesis so often, it means that such a conversation really took place, and he liked the reaction of journalists. Even Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed this, albeit in a veiled form.
Now Putin cannot offer Trump anything new, except for issues related to the war in Ukraine. There is only one version – through Kirill Dmitriev, Russia offered the US to organize trade in Russian sanctioned raw materials in Europe, but the European Union is categorically against this. And Trump will not be able to implement such a scenario.
The only field for bargaining is the war in Ukraine. Putin can “sell” only two things: either escalation or de-escalation. Trump is categorically in favor of the second option, Reiterovich noted.
That is why the next conversation between Trump and Putin will be especially interesting. The initial conditions have changed: the situation in the Middle East is “frozen,” and although there will be no quick peace there, the active phase of the conflict has died down. Putin now finds himself in a situation where he must give concrete answers – and give them sooner.
