Main points
- The conflict between Iran and Israel has paused, but could resume unless Iran agrees to curbs on its nuclear program.
- Russia has no ability to influence the situation in the Middle East, and the United States does not need its mediation.
Trump is not interested in Russia as a mediator in the Middle East / Collage by Channel 24, photo by Getty Images
The hot phase of the conflict in the Middle East has now stopped, but the situation is still far from being resolved. Despite the fact that Iran has been dealt a powerful blow, it is trying to demonstrate victory. Russia has also suffered a diplomatic defeat in this confrontation.
Political scientist Igor Reiterovich told Channel 24 how the conflict between Iran and Israel with the participation of the United States will develop, and whether the Kremlin will be able to influence events in the Middle East. It is also known that Israel has been spying on nuclear facilities in Iran for decades, and Mossad agents managed to penetrate them and make detailed maps. This allowed successful strikes on Iran.
Has nothing to offer
Reiterovich noted that the parties to the conflict in the Middle East have taken a pause and it will last until diplomatic contacts appear and Tehran is offered a certain model of a nuclear agreement. At the same time, Iran does not admit that it lost this 12-day war. Moreover, it believes that it won it.
However, this agreement must provide that:
- Iran will not enrich uranium for military purposes;
- he will give up uranium enriched for military purposes;
- Tehran is subject to restrictions on the production of ballistic missiles of a certain range, conditionally capable of reaching Israel.
If Iran does not agree to this, which is quite likely, then the bombing could resume, and Israel is preparing for this, he suggested.
Syria and Saudi Arabia could also play an important role, according to the political scientist. If they join the Abraham Accords, which recognize the existence of the state of Israel, this would be a colossal ideological blow for Iran.
At the same time, Russia, as Reiterovich noted, has no opportunity to influence the situation in the Middle East, because it cannot offer anything to resolve it.
Please note! At the height of the standoff in the Middle East, Vladimir Putin approached Donald Trump with an offer to become a mediator between Iran and Israel. However, the US President turned him down, saying, “I don't need help with Iran, I need help with you.” Trump emphasized that he would probably be able to make a deal with Russia.
“It makes no sense for Trump to turn to Russia, which is not a global player, has no presence in the region and was slapped in the face first in Syria and then in Iran,” he explained.
The only thing Russia can do is to take over the 408 kilograms of enriched uranium that Iran has. However, it would be more logical to transfer it to China.
Previously, Putin had leverage – he could send troops to Syria to bomb civilians, since they were acting under the wing of the Bashar al-Assad regime. However, the Kremlin will not dare to go to Iran, because it would be a challenge to Israel and the United States, Igor Reiterovich noted.
Moreover, the level of training of at least some of the Iranian troops, in his opinion, turned out to be somewhat exaggerated, since in fact half of the country's air defense system was destroyed in one day. Moreover, it was built on Soviet and Russian models.
Therefore, Trump does not need Putin's mediation in the Middle East. However, the political scientist added, Russia is now important for Trump in the role of a certain stick, which he may plan to use against someone else.
