According to the publication, Trump can “collapse” the Russian economy by using the “Reagan” scenario.
New US President Donald Trump is capable of “collapsing” the Russian economy, repeating the trick of the 40th US President Ronald Reagan, and ending Putin's rule without entering into war.
How to do this, says the article Time.
The author of the article believes that Trump has the leverage to force Vladimir Putin to immediately end the Russian-Ukrainian war if he refuses the weak, inconsistent economic pressure of the Biden administration.
The publication notes that the fact that Trump's return could end Putin's rule seemed incredible a few weeks ago. Many Ukraine supporters openly feared that Trump might force Ukraine into a bad peace deal tantamount to capitulation, given Trump's oft-stated intentions to “end” the war on his first day in office.
But Trump appears to have similarly changed his stance on Putin after learning how weak the Russian economy really is.
“Put simply, the Russian economy is collapsing — Putin is destroying the productive economy to finance his war machine,” Time writes.
According to journalists, if the dictator loses the oil revenues that have supported him for the past three years, then Putin's regime will almost certainly fall.
The publication notes that Putin has already used Russia's finances “for a rainy day,” having exhausted the once formidable foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, the Russian ruble is falling like a currency that even China is dumping. Russia's central bank is running out of firepower, and Putin can't cut spending without bankrupting his expensive war machine.
Russia can't make up for lost oil exports because it's already lost 90%its former natural gas exports thanks to Europe finally moving away from its dependence on Russian gas. Russia contributes very little to the global economy, other than energy exports.
“Oil revenues are a powerful drag on the Russian economy, and Trump understood the power of that lever in a way the Biden administration did not. The outlook for Russian oil sales is now very different, and Russia's outright economic collapse looks much more likely. Thanks to Trump's promises to lower oil prices and increase U.S. domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day, the world will no longer need Russian oil,” Time notes.
In addition, the publication notes that the cost price of Russian oil is much higher, than, say, in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and other major oil producers. This is due to the inaccessibility of Russia's main oil fields in the northern regions of the Russian Federation.
“History reminds us that this toy of economic pressure on Russia has worked successfully before. The Cold War ended largely because of the unexpected collapse of the Russian economy, which many experts did not expect, but whose vulnerability Ronald Reagan identified more intuitively than by carefully analyzing the problems. Now Trump has the opportunity to pierce Putin's propaganda bullet and strangle the Russian economy to collapse, if he chooses to do so,” Time concludes.
Earlier it became known when Ukraine's negotiations with Trump's team will take place.
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