According to Vadim Denisenko, the likelihood of a sudden announcement of the annexation of Transnistria to Russia is close to zero.
Unrecognized Transnistria at the end of February may ask Putin to “join” the Russian Federation. On February 28, a congress of deputies of all levels is planned to be held in Pridnestrovie for the first time in 18 years. Transnistrian oppositionist Gennady Chorba believes that an appeal to Russia about the annexation of the region will likely be adopted at this congress.
And on February 29, Russian dictator Putin will deliver a message to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
Political expert Vadim Denisenko explained what kind of “game” they started in the unrecognized “republic” and what Putin was up to. This is reported by Dumskaya.
In his opinion, the likelihood of a sudden announcement of the annexation of Transnistria to Russia is close to zero.
“The authorities of the unrecognized republic will not take any drastic steps while the war is going on. Tiraspol will make a decision on the future of the region in a calmer period in order to bet on the winner. At the same time, the priority scenario is integration into Europe through Moldova and Romania, and not becoming enclave of the Russian Federation,” says Denisenko.
The expert recalled that the previous congress in this format, which took place in 2006, ended with a decision to hold a referendum on the annexation of Transnistria.
“The referendum was held, 97% voted in favor. However, no one joined anywhere. Maybe they decided to correct the “flaw”? No, there will be no real decisions. The maximum is loud statements without consequences,” – the analyst is confident.
Denisenko suggested that the Kremlin was probably also not interested in developments. After all, Moscow, most likely, will not be able to protect the region if, after the pro-Russian declaration of Tiraspol, Chisinau and Kyiv decide to eliminate the separatist status of the region.
The expert calls the position of Gagauzia (an autonomous territorial entity in the south of Moldova) indicative. The head of the region, Evgenia Gutsul, plans to participate in the economic summit in Istanbul, and is not preparing for a possible crisis, which would inevitably cause Transnistria's decision to join the Russian Federation.
What is the purpose of the congress?
According to the expert, Tiraspol is gathering a congress of deputies of all levels to put pressure on Chisinau, and not to prepare a “petition” to Moscow.
“The fact is that Moldova began collecting duties on goods of Transnistrian companies from January 1. The money goes to the budget of Moldova. According to the calculations of the Transnistrian customs authorities, Transnistria loses up to 16 million dollars a year.
This does not suit either the political elite of Transnistria, led by the president of the self-proclaimed Krasnoselskaya Republic, or business circles,” Denisenko suggested.
Ukraine's reaction
The expert noted that even before the convening of the congress was announced, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had contacts with the leader of the unrecognized Transnistria Vadim Krasnoselsky and the Deputy Prime Minister of Moldova for reintegration Oleg Serebryan. An agreement was reached on processing the issue of resuming consular services in Transnistria.
Denisenko calls such actions a signal that Transnistria will not take any real steps towards the Russian Federation.
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