Analysts of the Conflict Intelligence Team do not record serious steps in Russia towards declaring mobilization, although in different regions of the country citizens are called to the military registration and enlistment offices to “clarify data” and offer to sign a short-term contract.
At the same time, the CIT does not rule out that martial law may be introduced in Russia, to officially admit that they have unleashed a full-scale war against Ukraine, to close the border for men of a certain age and after that begin preparations for mobilization.
This is stated in the CIT report on May 5.
According to analysts, serious preparations for mobilization in Russia could be spoken of by a number of signs. One of them is if trains would carry equipment from mobilization warehouses for its re-mothballing and repair (now this is observed on a small scale). p>
It would also indicate training, if some of the officers from the front were taken to permanent deployment centers, so that they would train the mobilized (not observed). Polygons should be prepared, their maintenance and transportation of equipment should take place (not observed). And military registration and enlistment offices would have to prepare for the influx of people, involve the military police and commandant's office (not observed).
Recall, according to military expert Oleg Zhdanov, Putin announced on May 9 a general mobilization in Russia is unlikely.
At the same time, according to Zhdanov, if Russia declares direct war, this could completely isolate it from the world at a level that even it cannot afford.
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