Key points
- Russia's economic situation is complicated by the costs of the war against Ukraine and sanctions, which are leading to a federal budget deficit.
- The decline in oil and gas revenues is negatively affecting the Russian economy, which could lead to a banking crisis in September 2025.
The economic situation in Russia is significantly affected by the war that the Russians started against Ukraine. We are talking about the costs of military actions and sanctions against the aggressor country, including energy resources.
Ilya Neskhodovsky, head of the analytical department of the ANTS network, told 24 Channel about this, noting that Europe is preparing the next package of sanctions against Russia, but Hungary and Slovakia are trying to block it. Despite this, the European Union is looking for a way to counteract this.
Russia's worsening position
The goal was to reduce oil prices to $45 per barrel. According to Ilya Neskhodovsky, this is possible, since it will negatively affect Russia's situation.
We are already seeing a 27% drop in revenues from the sale of Russian oil and gas products. This is a huge amount, which has led to the fact that already in the first quarter of 2025, their federal budget deficit has increased by trillions, he said.
The reduction of oil and gas revenues of Russia critically affects the economic situation of the aggressor country. During such difficulties, the long-established chain is disrupted. In particular, there is no inflow of currency, oil and gas companies do not order and do not pay for transport, banking and logistics services.
Neskhodovsky emphasized that in this way, not only the oil and gas sector suffers, but also other sectors of the Russian economy.
If this continues for about six months, then Russians will have to attract funds from the banking system, which currently has major liquidity problems, which will lead to a banking crisis in September 2025, he added.
It should be noted that the war against Ukraine requires enormous financial resources from Russia – about 200 billion dollars annually, which is equal to the annual budget of Ukraine. The Russian economy is currently focused primarily on the military sphere, while civilian industries are in decline. According to the estimates of Doctor of Economics Vasily Furman, such a development model is unsustainable.
