Key points
- Escalation in the Middle East leads to an increase in oil prices, which is beneficial for Russia and may negatively affect Ukraine.
- There are threats of the Strait of Hormuz being closed or Iranian attacks on oil regions, which could push oil prices up to $125 a barrel.
- The conflict in the Middle East allows Russia to put pressure on Ukraine's international partners, but there is a risk of a military response from the United States.
The escalation in the Middle East may have an impact on the Russian-Ukrainian war. They are already recording a rise in oil prices, which is beneficial for the Kremlin, but also poses a danger to our country.
In May 2025, oil prices “sagged” very seriously. Ivan Us, chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, told Channel 24 about this, noting that Russians earned significantly less money then.
What 2 risks have emerged for Ukraine
In Europe, they have already talked about reducing the “price ceiling” for oil, but when the escalation in the Middle East began, prices rose. Now everything depends on how events will develop further. If we see a “long game”, then prices will remain high.
If we manage to prevent a significant expansion of the escalation from June 23, it is worth remembering that in July 2025, there will be an increase in the oil production rate in OPEC+ countries. They are talking about an additional 411 thousand barrels per day. This will lead to oil prices going down.
But now I see two very risky scenarios for the development of events. The first is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Then the oil countries of the region will not be able to supply their raw materials to external markets, – emphasized Ivan Us.
But an even worse scenario is if Iran follows through on its promise and attacks the oil regions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Then prices could rise to $125 a barrel, causing chaos in the world. Buyers will look beyond the Middle East for oil. Russia, first and foremost.
In this way, the aggressor country will be able to seriously put pressure on all our partners and begin to blackmail them. Therefore, the Kremlin is definitely interested in the conflict continuing, Iran continuing its attacks.
But on the other hand, they cannot help but be frightened that the US did strike Iranian bunkers. There is no guarantee that these bombs will not fly to Russia at some point.
