Foreign Policy: Russia Will Attack Ukraine Subject to Five Conditions
Photo: MOD Russia / Global Look Press
A Russian invasion of Ukraine could occur under five conditions, but this is not likely to happen at this time. This was stated by geopolitical analyst Eugene Chausovsky in an article for Foreign Policy magazine.
In his view, Moscow relies on five variables in deciding military intervention: root cause, local support, expected military response, technical capability, and relatively low expected political and economic costs. If any of the conditions is not met completely or is absent, then Russia is unlikely to dare to attack even in the post-Soviet space, Chausovsky is sure.
He also expressed the opinion that Russia during the reign of President Vladimir Putin is not inclined to take risks and “uses force quite conservatively.” At the same time, the expert did not rule out alternative actions on the part of Moscow. He cited hybrid warfare, covert activity, cyberattack, military buildup elsewhere, and disinformation as examples. Chausovsky also referred to the latter as warnings of a possible invasion.
Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the data about the allegedly impending Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia is recording an information campaign emanating from the West, the purpose of which is to present Moscow as a threat to the settlement process in Ukraine, said the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov.
