The operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region are a key moment in a full-scale war with Russia, which can change its trajectory.
This is reported by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Breakthrough in Kursk Oblast Could Change the Trajectory of the War
During the breakthrough in Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces achieved operational surprise by exploiting Russia's lack of preparedness in its border areas.
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Thus, this breakthrough demonstrated that surprise operations and actions are still possible even on a partially transparent battlefield, where the enemy can observe the concentration of forces, but cannot accurately discern intentions.
According to ISW experts, Ukraine can benefit from the fact that Russian troops have been attacking along almost the entire front line for months, rather than building large fortifications in the rear parts.
The Institute for the Study of War concluded that Ukraine could regain operational maneuverability by planning and executing a series of smaller, successive counteroffensives rather than launching a single decisive strike.
At the same time, ISW analysts noted that the war in Ukraine offers important lessons that the United States and its allies should learn.
It is noted that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was the first major war to witness several technological phenomena that will characterize future wars.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that battlefield experimentation is important, as was the case in Kursk.
“This approach contrasts with the dangers of continued defense and highlights the need for constant adaptation in the conditions of modern warfare,” the report notes. ISW.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing through the territory of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation
Despite statements by Russian bloggers about the alleged stabilization of the Russian Armed Forces on the front line, Ukrainian troops continue to actively advance through the territory of the Kursk region.
The ISW report recalled that on August 11, Russian military bloggers announced an alleged reduction in the offensive activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
However, a well-known pro-Kremlin military blogger subsequently denied this information and stated that the Russian Armed Forces are far from stabilizing the situation.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces crossed the border into the western Kursk region in the areas of Slobodka-Ivanovka (northwest of the city of Sumy and two kilometers from the international border), Tetkino (south of Slobodka-Ivanovka along the international border), Gordeevka, Uspenka, and Viktorovka (all north of the city of Sumy along the international border and south of Koreneve).
At the same time, Russian sources say that Ukrainian forces have captured Slobodka-Ivanovka, Uspenka, and Viktorovka.
Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers have claimed that fighting is ongoing near Snagost (south of Koreneve) and Kremneve (east of Snagost), and that Ukrainian forces are advancing north and south of Koreneve in an attempt to bypass the settlement.
It is noted that geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian troops have recently advanced within Kremneve and east of Zhuravli (northeast of Koreneve).
At the same time, a pro-Kremlin blogger says that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced north of Zhuravli in the direction of Obshchy Kolodez (northeast of Koreneve and 30 kilometers from the international border).
Ukrainian Troops in Sudzha: What is Known
Footage published on August 12 indicates that Ukrainian troops have recently been active in Sudzha and the northern part of Zaoleshenka (west of Sudzha). Meanwhile, Russian bloggers claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had already captured Sudzha and Spalnoye (southeast of Sudzha).
In addition, additional footage with a location tag from August 12 shows Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment operating in the northern part of Girya (southeast of Sudzha and 13 kilometers from the international border).
Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces ambushed Ukrainian forces in central Girya, indicating that Ukrainian forces have at least temporarily advanced deeper into the town. However, it is not yet clear whether they are holding their positions in this area.
There is also footage indicating that Ukrainian troops have recently been active in Darino (northwest of Sudzha and three kilometers from the international border).
Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation
Russian sources are disseminating information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have also carried out cross-border incursions with the support of armored vehicles from the Sumy region to the northwest of Grayvoron in the Belgorod region near Kolotilovka and Prelesnoye and to the south of Grayvoron near Nameless.
