Russia continues to be a real terrorist. This time, the experience causes a possible explosion at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. The occupiers have been preparing for it for more than six months, but will it help them?
Alexey Pechiy, a Channel 24 journalist, shared his thoughts on a possible explosion at the Kakhovskaya HPP. He also talked about the influence of both Belarus and Iran on the course of the war, as well as Russia's desire to persuade Ukraine to negotiate.
The Russians can plan a large-scale terrorist attack on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, because it is known that the enemies mined both the dam and power facilities at the hydroelectric power station. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already called on the world to respond preemptively to such threats. Such frankly terrorist plans are an attempt to stop the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and create a natural shield from Ukrainian defenders. After all, the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South is significant and our fighters do not allow the invaders to simply run away from the right bank of the Dnieper, inflicting regular blows on the Antonovsky Bridge.
At the same time, it is the plans to escape from the right bank that partly explain Putin's declaration of martial law the day before. After all, Western experts assure that in the next 6 weeks the Armed Forces of Ukraine can achieve significant victories both in the South and in the East of Ukraine.
However, the Russians are also transferring forces to Belarus, thus creating tension on the northern borders of Ukraine. At the same time, experts assure that the risk of a second attack on Kyiv is minimal. At the same time, Russia is actively developing Iranian weaponsand Tehran, it seems, no longer hides its participation in the war. The Kremlin arranges all this for an attempt to again blackmail Ukraine into negotiations. And, by the way, the President of Turkey is again actively trying to arrange a dialogue between Zelensky and Putin.
So let's talk about the situation at the front and the Kremlin's latest attempts to agree on something.
Russians threaten a terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP
In the last two days, the rhetoric that the Russians are planning to arrange a terrorist attack on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station has sharply increased in order to stop the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South. Earlier, I recall, the commander of Russian terrorists in Ukraine, Surovikin, already hinted that that the Russians might have to resort to the unpopular decision on Kherson. After all, the Russians are no longer capable of holding the right bank of the Dnieper, but they cannot simply retreat, because this will further undermine the so unstable position of the Putin regime.
And the day before, Vladimir Zelensky said that the Russians had mined the dam and units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and were planning to carry out a terrorist attack under a false flag. The Russians can arrange such an act of terrorism when they overturn most of the troops on the left bank of the Dnieper. This will limit the possibility of further advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine towards the Crimea, and will also create a kind of shield for the enemies. Accordingly, Zelensky called on the West to react decisively, because it would be a disaster that would affect not only Kherson, but the entire Black Sea region.
Later, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed that the Russians mined the main part of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station back in April, while they were passing the locks and supports, and two KamAZ trucks filled with explosives were driven onto the very dam. Earlier, the enemies dispersed the thesis that it was the Armed Forces of Ukraine who were planning to blow up the dam in order to create an obstacle for the retreat of the invaders from the right bank of the Dnieper. Of course, this does not fit into any logic, but here the occupiers do not need it. They are simply looking for an excuse to carry out a terrorist act under a false flag.
Moreover, APU is really holding back the retreat of the Russians,but using completely different methods, and such as not to hurt the civilian population. The night before, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the crossing, organized by the occupiers under the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson. Today, OK “South” confirmed that a blow was indeed struck on the Antonovsky bridge. However, the enemies immediately began to squeal that the Armed Forces allegedly hit the crossing at the moment when there were civilians there.
And here all the plans of the invaders of the so-called evacuation of the civilian population from the Kherson region to Russia are revealed. Recall that on October 19, Kremlin dictator Putin issued a decree on the introduction of martial law in the occupied territories of Ukraine. With it, he, in fact, expanded the powers of the occupying authorities: he allowed them to seize everything they wanted for the needs of the war. But the main thing is the martial law allows collaborators and Russian militants to forcibly evacuate civilians from the right bank of the Kherson region.
Collaborators in Kherson continue to panic
And be sure, this is not done out of humanism. On the same day, collaborator Saldo announced that, according to preliminary estimates, about 60 thousand civilians are planned to be deported from the right bank of the Dnieper.He added that children should be forcibly taken out so that their parents would be forced to follow their relatives.
And now remember that on the right bank of the Dnieper there is an enemy grouping of about 25 thousand people.Accordingly, they need to somehow be taken out along with the equipment to the left bank. Indeed, after the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throughout the logistics through the Dnieper, and then even after the explosion on the Crimean bridge, the situation with the supply of this group became critical. So, the enemies are well aware that the Armed Forces of Ukraine keep all bridges and crossings across the Dnieper under full fire control, realizing that our command will not allow them to simply leave. Therefore, they decided to hide behind civilians.
That is, at the built crossing under the Antonovsky Bridge, which, by the way, was inspected the day before by two collaborators – Saldo and Aksenov – the enemies planned to transfer mixed groups. They conditionally consist of half civilian and half military. The calculation is simple: the Ukrainian generals, realizing that there were civilians at the crossing, would not have opened fire, and therefore would have been forced to allow the invaders to escape.
But, there is one important detail: the enemies announced the day before that < strong>civilian evacuation across the Dnieper will take place until 20:00,then the curfew begins. That is, civilians are prohibited not only at the crossing, but in general on the street after 20:00. And now the most important thing: the attack on the crossing was struck at about 23:00. And now the speaker of the OK “South” assures that the statements from the enemies about the alleged hit on civilians were expected, but the invaders themselves were already entangled in their lies.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians sent up to 2,000 Russian mobilized to the Kherson region to make up for the losses. The department also assured that the occupation authorities issued an order to prepare the evacuation for the so-called “banking institutions.” Evacuation lists of imported Russian medical workers and teachers have also been compiled. Objects of the humanitarian sphere in Kherson stop their work.
UAF received a window of opportunity in the Kherson region< /h3>
Both attempts to escape, and attempts by Russians to commit a terrorist attack at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, in fact, have one reason – the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After all, according to the NYT, citing sources among American officials, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a “window of opportunity” for success on the battlefield against the Russian army. They will be able to recapture cities in the East and potentially Kherson in the future. This window of opportunity will last approximately 6 weeks.
US officials say there is little chance of a wide-scale collapse of Russian forces that would allow Ukraine to seize another huge swath of territory, as happened in the Kharkiv region. But individual Russian units may fall under constant pressure from Ukraine, which will allow Ukrainian troops to retake cities in the East, as well as Kherson, which the NYT calls the main prize in the war.
Experts note that the APU will definitely expand its advantage in the coming weeks. But this must be done very carefully:
- on the one hand, not to the point of over-expanding their military supply lines, because this can become a target for Russian missile strikes,
- on the other hand, so that it does not create vulnerabilities on the defense lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which the Russians can attack.
As for the Luhansk region, according to the chairman of the OVA Sergey Gaidai, now the hottest direction in the region is in the Svatovoe region. It is there that battles are now being fought, the invaders are shelling the de-occupied villages. In addition, according to Gaidai, the Russians are evicting Ukrainians from their homes in order to place their militants there. First, the resettlement took place along the front line in the directions of Kreminnaya – Svatovo, now the invaders have reached the cities of Rubizhnoye and Severodonetsk.
So, given the dynamics of hostilities, American officials do not think that there will be a long pause in the fighting. Snow will not slow down the fighting, but mud in late autumn will. However, in time, as the land becomes established, the armies will once again be able to advance faster. Accordingly, now the same window of opportunity has arisen, which we talked about above.
And there is an interesting detail here, which is emphasized in the NYT edition – Ukrainian officials still do not share most of their operational plans. Moreover, Putin's intentions for the next phase of the war are difficult to discern, and regular contact between Americans and Russians is still few, if any. Therefore, it is predicting the course of the war with 100% accuracy is almost impossible.
The danger from Belarus is growing again
Moreover, the danger from Belarus is rising again, because Russia is transferring its troops and equipment there. Today, Belarusian dictator Lukashenka visited the Obuz-Lesnovsky combined-arms training ground in the Brest region, where he was shown drones allegedly made in Belarus and other military equipment.
Lukashenka noted that Belarus will sell equipment to those who agree to buy it. But it is obvious that they are preparing this weapon for the Russian army. Although the dictator cynically stated, and I quote: “It is undesirable, of course, that our models fight in Ukraine: after all, they are our own people.” Further, he generally spoke about the fact that he allegedly does not want war and denies covert mobilization and preparation for confrontation in their own country. He again repeated that he was doing everything to protect the country from the mythical plans of attack from Ukraine and NATO.
However, in fact, it is really better for Lukashenko not to rock the boat in the direction of Ukraine. Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine appealed to the citizens and military of Belarus with a call not to follow the orders of the leadership to enter the war against Ukraine. The Ukrainian army noted that Russia is now actively involving Belarusians in an open attack on Ukraine.
Under the guise of inspections, a covert mobilization of citizens began in Belarus to recruit a joint group of troops with Russia on the borders with Ukraine. So that Lukashenka does not say there. However, if Belarusians still dare to attack Ukraine, they will receive a fitting rebuff from the entire arsenal of modern weapons. And then hell awaits the Belarusians already on their territory.
However, so far both British intelligence and the Institute for the Study of War are sure that < strong>Belarusian grouping is not ready for an offensive.Therefore, such a possibility in the near future is minimal. The representative of the US National Security Council, John Kirby, repeated the day before that Belarus could concentrate manpower on the border in order to fix Ukrainian forces in the north of Ukraine, as well as prevent their deployment in the zone of active hostilities in the south and east of Ukraine. Like, this is the only thing that the current grouping of enemy troops on the territory of Belarus is capable of.
Iran is already fighting on the side of Russia
However, there is another problem – Iranian weapons that Russia receives, and with which the enemies are hitting the energy system of Ukraine. Obviously, in this way The Kremlin is trying to create a new wave of migration from Ukraine. And the EU is even preparing for such scenarios, promising to receive all those in need.
Unfortunately, cooperation between Russians and Iranians is indeed on the rise. In particular, the day before, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed that Russia is not just using Iranian drones to strike Ukraine. On the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea there were specialists from Iran who helped the Russian military. He clarified that these were instructors who provided technical support for the launch of Iranian kamikaze drones. That is, Tehran is now directly involved in the war in Ukraine, and not just supplying weapons.
However, fortunately, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still improving our air defense more and more. In particular, according to Yury Ignat, the speaker of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, over the past two weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been demonstrating significantly better skills hits on Iranian kamikaze drones “Shahid-136”, shooting down 85% of drones. The Ukrainian military “acquired a certain understanding” of how to organize interaction and cover in certain areas, by what means it is better to identify and destroy them. In addition, Western partners still transfer air defense and missile defense to Ukraine. And NATO promises to provide hundreds of anti-drone systems.
Erdogan spoke about negotiations again
And against the backdrop of such news about the constant failures of the Russians and their likely retreat from Kherson, Turkish President Recep Erdogan again spoke about direct negotiations between Putin and Zelensky. Although a few days ago, his official representative, Ibrahim Kalin, said that Ankara sees no real chances for such negotiations.
Erdogan said today that he plans to call the leaders of Ukraine and Russia again in the coming days. He seeks to do this to discuss the topic of the negotiation process. Erdogan still insists that neither side of this world will lose. But then the Turkish president took into account one important detail: according to him, Putin has recently become softer, as well as more open to negotiations. Although who cares.
However, today there was another piece of news: it turned out that the US Secretary of Defense spoke on the phone with Russian Minister Sergei Shoigu about the war in Ukraine. And the details of this conversation have not yet been disclosed.
