KOF lowered its growth forecast from 3.2 to 2.1 percent
The Swiss economy is likely to recover more slowly this year than previously expected. This is what the ETH Zurich Economic Research Center (KOF) assumes. She has lowered her forecast for growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 from 3.2 to 2.1 percent, as she announced. The second lockdown will dampen the economic recovery, it is said to justify.
The KOF reminds of the current containment measures such as shop closings. Because of the mutating virus, it can be expected that these will remain valid until the second quarter. In addition, the vaccination start was slow.
The forecasters also rely on the so-called business situation indicator, which is created on the basis of a survey of over 4,500 companies. This indicator fell again in January. “The second wave of pandemics is slowing down some industries,” concluded the KOF. In the hospitality industry, for example, more than every second company is now afraid of bankruptcy.
The KOF assumes that the Swiss economy will not reach pre-crisis levels again until the end of 2021. GDP growth of 3.6 percent is forecast for 2022. This forecast is well above the previous one of 2.6 percent.
