Putin has set new goals for the Russian army.
Ukraine can quickly lose an entire region if the enemy will break through the current defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but this does not mean defeat. But after Ukraine, Putin may attack other countries.
Which ones exactly, what other plans does Putin have, what is the overall situation at the front and when the war might eventually end – see exclusive TSN.ua.
Putin set a goal for his orcs – by May 9, no matter what, to capture an important city for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbass. We are talking about the small regional center of Vremya Yar. It is close to Bakhmut, and most importantly, this city is a strategic height from which it will be easier to carry out a further offensive further and deeper into the Donbass: to Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk.
The fighting during the Yar continues
The Ukrainian Armed Forces knew and were the first to tell about this enemy plan and promised that the Russians would not be able to take the city so quickly – the Ukrainian Armed Forces would hold it as long as they had enough strength, they said. Despite the stubborn fighting around, the city continues to hold out.
But it is the situation in Donbass that is now the most problematic for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In an interview with TSN correspondent Natalia Nagornaya, the head of one of the largest charitable foundations in Ukraine, “Come Back Alive,” Taras Chmut shared his forecast of the situation at the front. It’s so difficult there that a volunteer suggests that the Russians can break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Ukraine could theoretically lose the entire Donetsk region. However, this will not be equal to Ukraine’s defeat in the war.
Think and assess the situation rationally, not emotionally. Subsequently, Taras Chmut explained what he meant. According to him, it is up to the military, not commentators on the Internet, to assess whether it is necessary to hold any kind of landing at the front.
In mid-April 2024, Ukraine rejoiced at such long-awaited American help. While the congressmen hesitated, Ukraine, due to a lack of the ammunition and equipment promised by the measure, lost territories, including Avdievka, which the Americans themselves recognized. Now this problem must be resolved – Washington has already begun the process of transferring weapons and other benefits to Ukraine for 61 billion US dollars – this is the amount that Congress provided. Chmut looks at this with a cool head. There will actually be enough aid until 2024.
Insight from Chmut
But this information from Chmut can safely be called a loud insider. The volunteer named the amount that his foundation alone invested in the 2023 counteroffensive, and also gave him his professional assessment. Spoiler alert, you will understand how extremely difficult such operations are and why there is hardly any talk of a new offensive in the near future.
According to the military, from Kharkov to Kherson it is difficult to find just one quiet place. The enemy is intensively attacking and hitting with everything he has along the entire 1000-kilometer contact line, just like the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But the main direction remains Donetsk: Vremya Yar and Avdeevskoe direction and Kharkov region – Kupyansk.
Recently, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, announced an attempt to break through the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Avdeevka and advance to the city of Pokrovsk. But these are not the only plans he has in mind Putin. Almost for the first time, the alarm was sounded in all seriousness in one of the intelligence services of the countries also bordering the Russian Federation. Polish counterintelligence officers recorded the readiness of the Russians to go to war against one of the Baltic countries. We are not talking about Tallinn, Riga or Vilnius in 3 days.
But Putin has another ace up his sleeve, which has already worked in Moldova in the early 90s, in Georgia in the late 2000s and in Ukraine in 2014 – hybrid war. The head of Polish counterintelligence, Jaroslaw Strzyk, made a shocking statement.
The only thing that is now stopping Putin from opening a second front is the position of the West. He does not yet understand how NATO will react to such insolence. Let us recall that earlier the German publication Bild, citing data from one of the European intelligence services, wrote that Putin’s likely plan is an attack on one of the Baltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia at the end of 2024 or beginning of 2025. This is when the US will be in the midst of elections and, possibly, the process of transferring presidential powers. According to Putin's calculations, the forced weakness in decision-making in the United States will disarm other NATO allies.
Back in mid-January 2024, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted that Putin was creating information conditions for future escalation in the region. His deceitful apostates and propagandists are increasingly discussing the language issue in the former Soviet Baltic republics, accusing Vilnius, Tallinn and Riga of imaginary Russophobia and hostility towards the Russian Federation more and more loudly.
And one more interesting fact. On May 3, the FSB announced that it had detained more “Ukrainian saboteurs,” but there was one “but.” According to them, the saboteurs trained and received training in Lithuania. And this is not the first such case. It is quite possible to assume that this is how Putin and his security forces instill hatred in the racists towards these neighbors.
Kazakhstan is in danger
Other neighbors of Russia should also seriously strain themselves. Kazakhstan is in the crosshairs of the Russian Federation. It is worth saying that this country is an ally of Russia within the framework of a defense alliance – such as NATO at the minimum wage of the Collective Security Treaty Organization – CSTO. It was within the framework of this organization that Russia helped the new Kazakh elite, led by the current president Kasim-Zhomart Takayev, lead the country instead of its lifelong leader Nursultan Nazarbayev and use force: machine gun fire, armored personnel carriers and batons to quietly suppress the protesters. This was in January 2022.
But from the very beginning of the full-scale, Kazakhstan somewhat distanced itself from Putin and was even seen in helping Ukraine, of course, through mediation with the United States. Earlier, the Kyiv Post reported that the United States purchased 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan with the possibility of their potential use in Ukraine. Such aircraft could serve as a source of spare parts or be strategically deployed as decoys at airfields. Officially in Kazakhstan this fact was denied.
Last warning for Astana
And in the Russian Federation this caused a real explosion in the brains of propagandists. They began to threaten Kazakhstan and again started talking about the “originally Russian” Northern Kazakhstan. But the signals sounded before. This audio appeared in early April on the telegram channel “VChK-OGPU,” known for its insiders from power circles in the Russian Federation. The State Duma started talking about the attack on Astana.
Recall that Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the residents of the occupied territories of Donbass and Luhansk region on the 10th anniversary of the “formation of the republics”, but in fact – on tenth year of occupation.
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