The Russian elite is shaking, but not everything is going well for Putin's key security officials/Getty Images
Since we do not live in a civilized Western world, where politicians and in general all important figures are simply obliged to report everything to society (although, let's be objective, there are enough secrets in the West), when assessing in any situation at any moment, we all the time need to keep in mind the fact that key processes are hidden from us. Although sometimes the “ears” are simply torn out.
There is a clear feeling that right here and now, both inside the Russian elite and around it, very serious processes are taking place, which, most likely, will very soon lead to a complete reformatting of the status quo. We can only guess in which direction – for the better for the world (and for all of us) or for the worse.
Not everything is going smoothly for Putin's key security officials
Kremlin policy, like the true level of losses of the Russian army, is a secret with seven seals. But we see with our own eyes that the Russian elite is shaking and shaking a lot. From the very first hours of this whole story, it was clear that everything could not go smoothly there – due to, let's say, the not very confident behavior of some of Putin's key security officials.
The same mumbling of Naryshkin is already worth a lot as a signal. And, if such a signal was noticeable even to ordinary Twitter users, then there is no doubt that the world's leading intelligence agencies see the situation much deeper and better, and in general they are unlikely to sit idly by.
Then there were many rumors that there were people in Russia leaking the location of certain Russian units to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Rumors are just rumors, but 6 generals have already died – this is an unprecedented level of losses of the high command for such a short period of war. Colonels and lieutenant colonels have already ceased to be counted. Such a situation is a sure sign of a catastrophe either in the army or in the elites in general, or both.
Shoigu's disappearance
Finishing (interim) the topic with the generals – the second day the Internet is buzzing in search of the Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu and the head of the General Staff Gerasimov. Those, being the key security forces of the wartime, simply disappeared and that's all. Rumors/versions are very different and interesting: arrest (for links with the CIA), synchronous illness with the same symptoms, and even, excuse me, death in Chernobaevka. Again, what this is all for, good or bad, we can only guess, we only fix it.
In Russia, Shoigu was “lost”/Photo by Getty Images
Well, from the generals we return to the civilian elites. Merged Chubais. He, of course, is not the most important top today, but he is a person with vast experience, animal instinct and direct access to the highest power in the Kremlin in all post-Soviet times. This is such a “rat from the ship”, which, if it doesn’t know something for sure, will definitely not run. World media in unison write that Nabiullina was going to resign, but she was not released. Medinsky utters strange narratives about the situation “either – or” – the very statehood of Russia is at stake.
And today everyone also paid attention to the statements of Medvedev, who emphasized that the decision to invade is only Putin's decision, made personally. Putin, by the way, did everything for his part to make it not look like that, trying with all his might to hide behind the collective will of key figures. We remember the very meeting where Naryshkin was mumbling, and everyone was called in turn “to the board.”
Only a month of war and only a month of sanctions passed. There are fewer and fewer generals in Russia, supreme commanders are disappearing, political patriarchs are starting to leave for warmer countries, and people from the ruler's inner circle say very ambiguous things.
Whether it's warm or cold; to rain or snow – God knows. But the feeling that something is happening behind the scenes is very persistent.
