Moscow underestimated Ukraine's ability to seize the initiative on the battlefield, which the Russians had held since the fall of 2023.
The offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation allowed the Defense Forces to at least temporarily seize the initiative in one section of the front and continue the confrontation throughout the entire territory of military operations.
This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
American experts write that Russia's possession of the initiative throughout the entire territory of military operations since November 2023 has forced Ukraine to spend material and human resources on reactive defense operations. However, the breakthrough in the Kursk region forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to react and shift forces and resources to the sector where Ukrainian troops began the attack.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command likely misjudged that Ukraine lacks the ability to seize the initiative, and the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to achieve operational surprise and seize the combined arms initiative calls into question the underlying operational-strategic assumptions of Russia's current offensive efforts in Ukraine,” the report says.
Moscow's response may require the Russian military command to consider personnel and logistical requirements for border defense as part of a campaign plan across the entire war zone, and may therefore impose long-term constraints on operational planning that Russia has not previously faced.
“Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast and subsequent possible Ukrainian cross-border incursions are forcing the Kremlin and the Russian military command to decide whether to consider a thousand-kilometer international border with northeastern Ukraine as an active front, and which Russia should defend, and not as an inactive section of the front, as they have treated it since the fall of 2022,” ISW notes.
Russia's attitude to the international border as a “sleeping front” has given it greater flexibility in accumulating and attracting human and material resources for military operations in Ukraine. Analysts also add that Russia has spent significant resources on building fortifications along the international border, but has not deployed there a sufficient number of personnel and equipment to man and defend these fortifications.
Recall that ISW analysts assessed what the “breakthrough” in the Kursk region will mean for “Fuhrer” Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin will try to return Russian territory in the Kursk region, which was captured by Ukrainian troops, and stop Ukrainian activity deep into Russia
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