According to the analysis, the Russian civil aviation sector is on the verge of collapse.
Military intelligence of Ukraine conducted a successful special operation in cyberspace against Rosaviatsiya and obtained a large volume of classified official documents from a structural unit of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation.
This was reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
It is noted that among the data obtained as a result of the break and penetration into enemy information systems, they received a list of daily reports from Rosaviation throughout Russia for more than a year and a half.
Their analysis shows that the Russian civil aviation sector is on the verge of collapse.
Intelligence managed to find out that:
1. In January 2023, 185 aircraft accidents were recorded in Russian civil aviation. About a third are classified as incidents of varying severity levels. The leader here was the Russian short-haul aircraft “superjet” – 34 problem cases.
2. In the first 9 months of 2023, 150 cases of technical malfunctions of aircraft were documented in Russia. Over the same period in 2022, 50 such incidents were recorded. Consequently, the risk of flying in Russia has tripled.
3. The most problematic areas of Russian aviation remain engines and landing gear, as well as other critical elements: hydraulic systems, flaps and software.
4. The aggressor state, Russia, is experiencing serious difficulties with servicing aircraft with a long flight time. Due to a lack of capacity and specialists, Moscow is trying to redirect aircraft maintenance to Iran, where the corresponding work is carried out “handicraft” without appropriate certification.
5. As of March 2022, the Russians had about 820 foreign-made civilian aircraft. And if at that time only up to 10% of them went through uncertified repairs using inauthentic spare parts, then almost 70% of the aircraft fleet had already gone through such a “service”.
6. An acute shortage of spare parts has led to the so-called “aircraft cannibalism” in Russia, when some aircraft are dismantled for repairs of others. According to an assessment of the available data, by mid-2023, more than 35% of aircraft in Russia were allowed to be donated.
7. Most Soviet An-2 aircraft, to this day, cannot get off the ground, since the engines for them were produced in Poland, but due to sanctions their supply was stopped.
8. During January 2023 alone, 19 different failures were recorded among 220 Airbus aircraft located in Russia. In particular, 17 cases of smoke were recorded in 9 aircraft used by Aeroflot.
9. Of the 230 Boeing aircraft used in Russia, 33 technical failures of certain aircraft systems were recorded.
10. Every seventh Brazilian Embraer could not withstand the conditions of Russian operation, and there are 21 of them in Russia.
According to the GUR, back in September 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated Russia as red along with Liberia and Bhutan, which indicates an extremely high risk to flight safety.
“An analysis of the nature of aviation incidents based on the documents received indicates that a number of failures, especially those related to engines, landing gear and wing mechanization, are systemic in nature. The trend indicates that the civil aviation sector in Russia is in a zone of serious turbulence with a high risk of falling into a steep slope ,” – intelligence notes.
The Main Intelligence Directorate emphasized that, thanks to EU sanctions, Russian aviation has an endless pile of problems, which the Russian authorities, exposing their population to mortal danger, are trying by all means to hide.
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