The timing of a possible Russian hybrid operation in Moldova is unknown.
The Kremlin is actively conducting information operations against Moldova, reminiscent of tactics used before the 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine. This raises concerns about possible future Russian escalation against Moldova.
This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made false accusations against the United States and the European Union, claiming that they control the government of Moldova and are obstructing the negotiation process on the Transnistrian conflict in the “5+2” format. Such narratives, developed by Russian officials and pro-war bloggers, create information conditions for justifying possible Russian intervention.
“The Kremlin also accused the United States of organizing the protests that erupted following Yanukovych's withdrawal from the 2013 Association Agreement with the EU, and said that the alleged “coup” that followed forced Russia to break into Crimea and begin military action in the Donbass in 2014 to protect “anti-coup protesters” and Russian “compatriots abroad,” the report says.
Analysts warn that the Kremlin is also using the idea of protecting “compatriots abroad” in relation to Transnistria to justify its invasion of Moldova, as it did with Crimea and Donbass. Russian actions in Transnistria, in particular military exercises, raise concerns about possible destabilization of the region.
Earlier, the head of the Romanian General Staff, Vlad Gheorghitse, said that Russia's next target could be Moldova, if measures are not taken and the tension in the Western Balkans is ignored.
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