If successful in Moldova, Moscow will be able to implement a larger blockade scenario, activating the far right in countries along the western border of Ukraine.
The start of the Polish blockade of the border with Ukraine in November 2023 is part of a more global scenario of logistical isolation of the country, supervised from Russia. At the same time, in Romania and Moldova, marginal and far-right manifestations have not received much support, but this does not mean that there will not be a new attempt.
This is stated in the material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko.
The Polish blockade of the border was in the interests of Russia
The Polish blockade of the Ukrainian border has become the center of attention as an extremely unfriendly act carried out by the Poles at a critical time for Ukraine. This act completely played into the hands of the Russian occupiers, because thanks to the blockade, the supply of various specific products became more difficult.
“It seemed that Polish farmers and the political forces supporting them acted only in the interests of Russia Or maybe it didn’t work out, but it was so… After all, while protesting against the transportation of Ukrainian grain, Polish farmers somehow did not particularly mention the fact that three times more Russian agricultural products were passing through the territory of Poland – more than 12 million tons,” – drew Kovalenko's attention.
He is convinced that the blockade of the border with Ukraine was a targeted and ordered operation organized by political forces that are, to one degree or another, affiliated with Russia.
As proof of the purposefulness of the blockade, the analyst cited the fact that the protests were organized by the far-right Confederation of Freedom and Independence, a coalition of far-right political parties in Poland professing Euroscepticism, Christian fundamentalism, monarchism, nationalism, and anti-Semitism.
Also, the actions of farmers and populists were secretly supported by the Polish Law and Justice party, but, as the observer points out, the main jokes in the arena were the ultra-right.
“This is not surprising, because it is precisely such political forces that have always aroused the interest and sympathy of Russia, which strengthened secret contacts with them, and sometimes directly financed them – for example, as the Alternative for Germany. But the story of the blockade of the border with Ukraine should become more ambitious than we could observe,” the material says.
Marginal manifestations in Romania: territorial claims and border blockades by farmers
Kovalenko explained that the arch-task of the Russian Federation in the second half of 2023 was a complete blockade of Ukraine on its western borders. The enemy’s goal is to create a catastrophic shortage in the supply of military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Western partners, which has already slowed down and decreased.
The observer noted that, along with Polish farmers controlled by far-right forces, similar agricultural forces in other countries neighboring Ukraine have revived.
So, in November 2023 Romanian senator Diana Soshoake called for taking away part of the territories from Ukraine. The politician is the founder of the SOS party and is known for her connections with Russians. At the height of the full-scale war in Ukraine in March 2022, Shoshoake and three other parliamentarians met with the Russian ambassador in Bucharest, “agreeing on their information role during the war.”
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At the same time, the head of the national council of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians party, Claudiu Tarziu, called on the Romanian authorities not to give up territorial claims to Ukraine. The politician advocated “take” Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina, Transcarpathia and so on.
“In unison with these statements Romanian farmers tried to block the border with Ukraine, in which they were supported by Moldova (here the farmers were supported by a Kremlin puppet – Dodon), although little attention was paid to this episode in our media. True, these attempts were lost in their effectiveness with the Polish blockade and were not a long-term and widespread phenomenon,” the publication says.
It is noted that a wave of discontent among farmers arose in Romania not only in unison with the Poles, but also against the background of how Kyiv and Bucharest began to resolve issues of bypassing Poland thanks to the new highway under construction.
According to Kovalenko, only the Polish one was a successful scenario for the blockade of Ukraine, while the Romanian and Moldavian ones turned out to be failures. This is because the driving force behind the blockade has always been the far-right fringe, and only in Poland did they receive support from the ruling PiS party, which tried to blame Ukraine for its failed economic policy.
At the same time, in Romania and Moldova, marginal and far-right manifestations have not received much support, but this means that there will not be a new attempt, warned the military-political observer.
The important role of Moldova in the future concept of the blockade of Ukraine
The article states that Moldova is undergoing a process of consolidation of the so-called opposition. We are talking about essentially uniting pro-Russian political forces – “Renaissance”, “Chance”, the outlawed party of Ilan Shor, as well as the Bashkan of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul – into a single party “Victory”. It is noted that this association took place under the “blessing” of curators from Moscow. Hutsul was elected the formal leader of the association.
Kovalenko predicts that Moldova in 2024 could become the main field of Russia’s upcoming struggle to restore control over the republic by uniting all puppet pro-Russian political forces into one .
“This year the jokes are over and the curators need results, and not a banal waste of the budget, since Moldova plays an important role in the future concept of the logistics blockade of Ukraine,” the material notes.
Since Moscow understands that the forceful option of seizing power in Chisinau will not work, because Ukraine will stand up for the legitimate power of President Maia Sandu, Russians have chosen an exclusively hybrid, latent, socio-political path .
“If successful in Moldova, Moscow will be able to implement a larger scenario, activating the far right in countries across Ukraine's western border. With renewed aid to our country and the unpredictable consequences of the US presidential election, such a the scenario of limiting logistics in Ukraine can become one of the most effective. And in this matter, ultra-right forces will be involved as the main locomotive of a wider blockade,” predicts Kovalenko.
Recall that on the morning of April 29, Polish farmers unblocked the Grebnoye-Rava-Ruska checkpoint on the border with Ukraine, but announced that they would not let trucks with grain through.
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