The loss of the naval base in Tartus could force the Kremlin to make a difficult choice.
A successful uprising against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could lead to Russia losing its military base in the Mediterranean. This situation may encourage Moscow to resume access to the Mediterranean through the Bosphorus, and thus end the war in Ukraine.
This is the opinion expressed by The Telegraph military observer David Ax.
According to him, if, following Aleppo, anti-government forces manage to capture Hama, they will have the prospect of an offensive in the direction of the Mediterranean coast – to the Latakia region, where the only base of the Russian fleet on the Mediterranean is located in the port city of Tartus.
According to the agreement that Russia and Syria concluded in 2017 for 49 years, Moscow received even greater access to Tartus, which has become an extremely important naval base. Lacking modern, reliable ships capable of withstanding long sea voyages, Russia is forced to rely on coastal navigation of its fleet from port to port.
“The loss of Tartus would be catastrophic for the projection of Russian power in Southern Europe and North Africa. Realistically, the only way for the Kremlin to replace the vital coastal infrastructure in Tartus is to restore access to the Mediterranean Sea through the Bosphorus, [closed to the Russian fleet due to the war in Ukraine], ” the observer notes.
Thus, the loss of the base in Tartus could force the Kremlin to choose: continue to fight in Ukraine and lose influence in the Mediterranean region, or make peace with Ukraine and unblock the Turkish straits for its fleet.
Recall, Political expert Taras Zagorodniy believes that Russian dictator Putin will suffer a painful political blow if Bashar al-Assad's regime loses in Syria, including because it will affect his ability to influence the price of oil in the world.
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