The pandemic caused a loss of 32.5 billion euros in the economy. “Despite extensive stabilization measures, the COVID-19 health crisis has turned into a serious economic crisis,” says Christoph Neumayer, General Secretary of the Federation of Industrialists (IV).
But he and IV chief economist Christian Helmenstein are optimistic about the year 2021. “There is a chance of a strong upswing,” says Neumayer. But there is an “if” hanging over all of them. Conditions are:
- Lifting of the lockdown measures by April at the latest
- Rapid resumption of international business and private travel without regulatory restrictions by July at the latest
- intact supply chains
- functioning vaccination strategy
Strongest upswing in 20 years
If everything fits, we will have “the strongest upswing in 20 years”, says economist Helmenstein. The IV economic barometer for the fourth quarter of 2020, which is determined as the mean value from the assessments of the current business situation and the business situation in six months, improved from 6.1 points to 26.2 points. Accordingly, the assessment of the current business situation is now 26 points after eight points previously. At the same time, business expectations for the first half of the year have increased from four points to 27 points.
Now the vaccination strategy is currently anything but smooth. If coping with the pandemic is delayed, it will cost the economy a quarter of a percentage point every quarter, warns Helmenstein. Home office and homeschooling would each cost an additional tenth of a percentage point.
| World trade has gained enormous momentum. We have to hang on there. |
| IV chief economist Christian Helmenstein |
|---|
In international trade, the corona virus is already history. The economist explains that impulses will come primarily from China. “World trade has gained enormous momentum. We have to stick with it. ”Then Austria would also experience export impulses. They are sorely needed for an economic upswing. Austrian products are very much appreciated on the international market. That would show the assessments of the order backlog.
The outlook for total order backlog shows a significant increase from ten to 29 points. The component of foreign orders rose even more strongly despite the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, which improved from zero to 28 points.
The slump is so strong, it can only go uphill
The decisive factor in the vaccination strategy, says Neumayer, is that one draws on the expertise of industry and large companies. There has to be an interaction between the public sector and industry. “We hope that we can contribute our expertise,” says Neumayer.
The normalization of the savings rate from its current almost doubled level, the restored accessibility of local and distant markets of the domestic industry and the tourism economy as well as a high demand impulse from the investment premium speak for the recovery. Added to this is the gradual reduction in economic policy uncertainty with the ratification of the post-Brexit agreement and the assumption of office of the new US President Joe Biden.
In addition, the economy has collapsed so severely that “for that reason alone, there should be an above-average rebound effect compared to a normal recession,” adds Helmenstein.
