Officials in Seoul have indicated that they may consider direct arms supplies if North Korea gains technology that will expand its ability to produce weapons of mass destruction.
Donald Trump's victory in the US elections prompts South Korea to reconsider the possibility of direct arms supplies to Ukraine. And that decision could impact the course of the war.
Bloomberg reports this.
President Yoon Seok-yol's government will now have to consider the U.S. president-elect's position as it considers whether to change its long-standing policy of not sending lethal aid to Kiev, said the official, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private and ongoing.
Separate government officials said Seoul was also examining how Trump's approach to the war would affect support for Ukraine among some countries.
The comments suggest South Korea is now unlikely to supply ammunition to Ukraine unless Pyongyang takes further action or there is more clarity on how Trump will handle the situation Ukraine.
“It would be quite embarrassing if South Korea, even though it is not a NATO member, were to intervene at this point if Trump comes to the White House and wants to withdraw from the conflict,” said Kim Jong-un, a political science professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
The president's office said the government would consider possible scenarios for Russian-North Korean military cooperation after Pyongyang's troop deployment and take countermeasures. “We will closely coordinate with our ally and partners in this process,” the statement said in response to Bloomberg's questions about South Korea's latest plans to send weapons to Ukraine.
Security Threat
Seoul has long resisted calls from Western allies to use its vast military stockpiles to directly send arms or ammunition to Ukraine, preferring instead to aid Kyiv with non-lethal aid. But North Korea's deployment of up to 12,000 troops to Russia has changed that stance, with Yun Seok-yol declaring that Pyongyang's direct involvement in the conflict poses a security threat to his country.
“We are not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons,” he told a news conference last week, before the results of the U.S. election that took place hours earlier were in. “If we provide weapons, defensive weapons will be considered first.”
Exporting lethal aid to Kiev would signal a strong endorsement of Ukraine. It could also benefit South Korean businesses if they take part in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.
It’s a move the Biden administration would likely welcome. But it’s unclear how Trump and his team will respond. The president-elect promised on the campaign trail to end the war “within 24 hours” by forcing Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, raising questions about the future of U.S. aid to Kyiv.
EU leaders are already grappling with whether they can continue Ukraine’s efforts if Trump decides to end U.S. support.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing to send an envoy to Seoul to persuade South Korea to reconsider its position in his favor. South Korea has huge stockpiles of 155mm artillery shells, the NATO standard used by Ukraine.
The United States and South Korea have repeatedly accused Kim of sending ammunition and ballistic missiles to help Putin in the war in Ukraine. South Korea estimates that about 8 million shells have been sent.
North Korean munitions supplies to Moscow pose a bigger problem for Ukraine than the aid Russia receives from other sources, including Iran, Kyiv's military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov said in September.
Seoul's cautious stance on arms supplies to Kiev is partly due to its fears of turning Russia into an enemy. Russia's Foreign Ministry has threatened “security consequences” for South Korea if it supplies weapons to Ukraine.
Strengthening ties between Pyongyang and Moscow have emboldened Kim Jong-un to become increasingly hostile toward South Korea, while raising concerns about North Korea's ability to bolster its military and maintain its regime with Russian support.
Kim and Putin upped the ante in June by reviving a Cold War-era pact to back each other if attacked. Both countries recently ratified the agreement.
Officials in Seoul have signaled they might consider direct arms sales if North Korea gains technology that would enhance its ability to produce weapons of mass destruction. Putin said he could not rule out handing Kim precision weapons in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.
It is worth noting that South Korea has provided Ukraine with non-lethal aid, including demining equipment, but has so far refused to respond to Kiev's requests for weapons.
Recall that Donald Trump and Yun Seok-yul discussed the participation of DPRK troops in the war against Ukraine. The leaders of the two countries plan to hold a personal meeting for a more in-depth discussion of this issue.
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