The intelligence noted that the victory of Ukraine in the war against Russia would increase security in the Baltic region.
Estonian intelligence has reported a growing danger of Russian military pressure on the Baltic countries and security risks for these countries in the medium and long term.
This is stated in the annual report Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, published on February 8.
It is noted that Russian military attack on Estonia in 2023 is unlikely.This is because the Russian army units stationed near the Estonian border are now fighting on the territory of Ukraine.
“At the same time, Russia's foreign policy ambitions, driven by the militancy of the Kremlin and imperialism, have significantly increased the security threat. If only Russia has achieved diplomatic or military success in Ukraine, this would increase the risk of political and military pressure from the Kremlin on the Baltic countries in the mid-2020s,” the Estonian intelligence report says.
They warned that the situation in the Baltic region this year could be further exacerbated by Russian plans to conduct large-scale military exercises near the western borders of the Russian Federation two years ahead of schedule.
Intelligence noted that Russia considers the Baltic countries to be the most vulnerable part of NATO. The Baltic countries will become the center of military pressure in the event of a conflict between Moscow and the Alliance. It is expected that for this reason, the Russian Federation is most likely to give priority to the restoration of its military potential, weakened in the war in Ukraine, directly near the border with Estonia.
“The quantitative restoration of the capabilities of these units will take up to four years. From the point of view of the Baltic states , Russia still has enough strength to exert serious military pressure in our region,” Estonian intelligence noted.
The report also notes that it is important for Estonia to show its military readiness to NATO in order to discourage Moscow from checking Alliance security guarantees.
“The likelihood of a military conflict between NATO and Russia would increase if Russia achieved its strategic goals in Ukraine. Therefore, the victory of Ukraine in the war against Russia will also increase security in the region,” the intelligence agency believes.
Recall that in December 2022, Polish Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavel Yablonsky said: “If we do not stop Russia, we have a 100% guarantee that there will be more wars.” According to Yablonsky, Poland and Baltic countries.
At the same time, The Guardian reported that the Kremlin-linked neo-Nazi paramilitary group Rusich called on its members to provide intelligence on border and military activities in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
According to Russian oppositionist and publicist Andrei Piontkovsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin viewed the invasion of Ukraine only as preparation for war with NATO.
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