Russia hastily removes military equipment and its troops from Syria
Syrian opposition forces announced the end of the rule of dictator Bashar al-Assad and the establishment of control over the republic. It later became known that the country would be ruled by Mohammed al-Bashir.
Many Iranian military commanders, as well as Russian ones, began to leave the country. The Assad family, led by Bashar, left Syria and flew to Moscow.
In particular, the Russians are withdrawing ships from the base in Tartus and overturning the remaining weapons with planes from Khmeimim. It is not an exception that Russian troops may go to Ukraine.
Read the exclusive report from TSN.ua about the potential impact of events in Syria on the situation in Ukraine.
Putin will try to avenge Assad
The address of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on December 10 stated that the Kremlin dictator would try to avenge the fall of the dictatorial regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
The head of state emphasized that the dictatorial regime in Syria had been based solely on violence for decades. And this is exactly what all the regimes that Putin supports are like.
According to Zelensky, Russia is a prison state that can only maintain someone else's stolen land thanks to the prisons and dungeons it places there.
According to the Ukrainian president, the Syrian and Russian dictators are accomplices in violence
“Dictators like Assad cannot survive without dictators like Putin. And Putin will try to avenge Assad's fall. That is why we need unity and strength to confront regimes that sow only humiliation and leave behind only suffering, pain and ruins,” the president emphasized.
Russians evacuate their troops from Syria
Due to the overthrow of the dictatorial regime, the Russians sounded the alarm and hastily began to withdraw their troops from Syria. In particular, the Russian Federation turned to Turkey for help.
The Russian Federation plans to leave forces only at the naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase, so Moscow sought support from Ankara.
Subsequently, the Russian Federation began a mass retreat of its troops from Syria, for which it uses a caravan of military transport aircraft, which are loaded with equipment, weapons and the remaining personnel.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, several An-124 and Il-76MD aircraft are planned to take off from the Khmeimim airbase, which must deliver cargo to airfields in Russia, in particular, Ulyanovsk, Chkalovsky and Privolzhsky.
To support the operation, the Russians have deployed naval forces and prepared the dry cargo ship Sparta II and the large landing ship Alexander Shabalin for dispatch in Baltiysk. The large landing ships of the Russian Northern Fleet, Alexander Otrakovsky and Ivan Gren, are also in the Mediterranean Sea, heading for Tartus. The hostile frigates Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko are also taking part in the operation.
In Tartus, the Russian military is carrying out emergency dismantling of equipment and machinery. Several hundred Russian special forces have already arrived to ensure the safety of the retreat.
“After losing control over Damascus amid the continuation of the offensive operation by opposition forces in the provinces of Latakia, Hama and Tartus, the Russian army withdrew its warships from the naval base in Tartus, which Assad had previously given to Moscow as payment for his security,” the GUR statement said.
Also, one of the Russian military bases is under siege.
Russian troops from Syria may be transferred to Ukraine
Head of the National Security and Defense Council Center for Political Affairs Andrey Kovalenkoreported that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria will not affect the situation in Ukraine. According to Kovalenko, we are probably talking about 7,500 thousand military personnel.
In particular, he noted that as of the summer of 2024, there were about 6,000-7,500 thousand Russian military personnel in Syria, including representatives of the PIK.
“Accordingly, even if all these military personnel are transferred to the Russian Federation and then sent to war against Ukraine, this will not significantly affect the situation at the front, given the fairly high daily losses of the Russian army in assault operations. Moreover, some of these soldiers can be transferred to Africa,” Kovalenko explained.
What the experts say
Military expert Mikhail Zhirokhovwarned that the Russians would transfer their planes and helicopters from Syria to the Ukrainian front. Most of the aircraft are Su-34 fighter-bombers.
As for the Russian fleet, the expert believes that Turkey will not allow Russian ships to pass through the Bosphorus Strait. It is also still unknown whether the ships will be able to pass through the Gibraltar area.
Naval expert of the Defense Express publication, retired captain of the first rank Vladimir Zablotsky commented on the transfer of Russian military and equipment from Syria. He noted that Putin may try to ask Erdogan to remove the cargo, but Turkey is unlikely to need this.
According to him, there are still Russian military personnel at Russian air bases in Syria, they are blocked together with their equipment and await a decision on their future fate. In particular, at the base in Tartus, which is more of a ship maintenance point, in addition to security, there is a workshop, several auxiliary vessels, one or two frigates and a submarine. Sometimes several ships with the Kalibr system would come there.
How the events in Syria are connected with Ukraine
During his address on December 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown due to the fact that most combat-ready Russians are on Ukrainian territory.
“The events in Syria are a clear example explaining why Ukraine needs the unwavering support and confidence of our partners. Everyone sees the importance of Ukraine and Russia's war against Ukraine,” he explained.
He stressed that the strength of the Russian army depends on the strength of Ukraine, because if Ukraine collapses, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin will return to Syria to take revenge, and to Africa, and to many other regions of interest to him.
US President Joe Biden agrees with Zelensky's opinion, and he also believes that Russia was unable to protect Assad due to the huge losses in the war against Ukraine.
Russia and Iran accuse Ukraine of supporting Syrian rebels
Russia's representative to the UN Vasiliy Nebenzya accused the Ukrainian special services of supporting Syrian rebels.
According to the France-Presse agency (AFP), Nebenzya pointed to militants associated with the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who, according to him, “not only do not hide the fact that they are supported by Ukraine, but also openly display this on display”.
The Russian representative noted that there is a certain “identified trace” leading to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, which, according to him, is arming and training rebels operating in northwestern Syria.
In particular, Vasily Nebenzya claimed that the Ukrainian military instructors are allegedly representatives of the GUR. The Russian diplomat also claimed that they have long been present in Syria, training HTS militants and preparing them for operations against Russian troops.
Then Iran joined these accusations.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry noted that “unlike Russia, Ukraine adheres to the norms of international law, the principles of inviolability of sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries.”
Events in Syria should be a signal for Putin
As the New York Post writes, the end of the “bloody rule” of the Assad family after 53 years is a serious loss for the regimes of Iran and Putin, which were the main allies of the Syrian dictator.
In particular, this result shows that the Kremlin's imperial ambitions exceed its capabilities, despite support from Iran and China.
Also, according to the publication, US President-elect Donald Trump learned an important lesson from this: defeat in Syria is another reason for Putin to retreat in Ukraine. In particular, Western experts believe that concluding a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia could be a difficult but reasonable step for Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin. This could provide Russia with “independence” and renew its relations with Western countries.
Recall that earlier TSN.ua reported what future was predicted for Syria after the fall of the dictatorial regime of Assad.
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