Putin hopes that the creeping offensive at the front will convince the West that victory for Kyiv is unattainable.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to prolong the war and destroy Ukrainian statehood. To avoid a hostile “victory theory,” the West needs to support Ukraine to carry out a counteroffensive.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War.
“The current theory of the dictator's victory rests on Russia's ability to survive and overcome promised Western security assistance to Ukraine, as well as the country's efforts to mobilize large parts of its economy and population for the war effort. Putin and Russian military commanders are increasingly considering as a strategic imperative to maintain the initiative throughout the theater of operations,” says the latest report.
ISW analysts are convinced that Moscow will block Ukraine's allocation of personnel and materiel for ongoing defense operations and will do everything to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from accumulating personnel and resources, which will ultimately lead to losing the war .
“If the Defense Forces can quickly reverse these gains and regain the initiative on the battlefield or in the entire theater of operations, Russia's slow advance will no longer have operational significance. Putin's theory is based on the assertion that Ukraine unable to quickly liberate territory. Western security assistance and efforts to allow Ukraine to seize the initiative are critical to changing Putin’s calculus,” the report said.
A protracted war may contribute to Putin’s calculations; he believes that the Russian Federation will be able to maintain any position and achieve its current stated territorial goals with a longer duration of the war.
Recall that Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine and its Western partners, Europe and the United States may have different ideas about what victory in the war is .
According to Zelensky, the fact that Western partners began to help Ukraine at the beginning of a full-scale invasion and did not allow the complete occupation of Ukraine is a victory for them.
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