Russian banking officials are warning of a serious danger. The country faces a systemic banking crisis in the coming year.
Russian banks are on the verge of a serious crisis. Experts predict a possible banking collapse by April 2026 if the economic situation does not improve. The main reason is the growing number of “bad” loans that clients cannot repay.
Bloomberg reports this.
Bankers are sounding the alarm over growing problems with bad loans, which could trigger a crisis in the coming year. High interest rates and deteriorating solvency of borrowers lead to people being unable to pay off their loans, and hidden debts are growing.
Although official statistics do not yet show a critical increase in overdue payments, internal bank documents show a huge difference between public data and the real situation. According to the banks themselves, the volume of bad debts reaches trillions of rubles (about 19 billion dollars). At the same time, the share of non-returned retail loans is growing, and banks fear a further increase in “doubtful” loans.
Analysts predict a moderate probability of a systemic crisis by April 2026. If there are fewer new loans and more defaults, the risk will increase. The Central Bank also notes that the risks are concentrated in 13 major companies, the number of which has doubled in a year.
Position of Russian officials: from “cooling” to avoiding “stagnation”
At the St. Petersburg forum, Russian ministers assessed the economic situation differently. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned of the risk of recession (economic decline). Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina called it a “necessary cooling” after a period of high inflation. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov admitted that the economy is going through a cold period.
Vladimir Putin, in turn, demanded to avoid stagnation and recession at any cost. However, sanctions and possible new restrictions from the EU and the US on the banking sector could further worsen the state of the Russian financial system.
Consequences and forecasts: despite profits, the economy is slowing down
Despite record profits for Russian banks in 2024 (3.8 trillion rubles), the situation in industry and construction is deteriorating. And the debts of state-owned industries are only exacerbating the crisis.
To ease the credit crisis, the Central Bank cut its key rate to 20% for the first time in three years, but it still remains at a record high.
Let us recall that Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda spoke in favor of expanding sanctions against Russia, calling for decisive action on the part of Europe and an end to “half-hearted measures.”
