At least 5 ships have left the Russian naval base in Tartus.
Considering the successes of the rebels in the fighting in Syria, the Russian military command probably has concerns about the real danger to the fleet stationed at the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria. That's why the Russians have been sending several ships out to sea over the past two days, as evidenced by satellite images.
Several OSINT analysts reported this.
Russian Navy Leaves Syrian Base
OSINT analyst MT Anderson reported that open source intelligence showed that at least five ships had left the Russian naval base in Tartus:
According to another analyst, Droxford Maritime, the ship Yelnya, part of the Baltic Fleet, left Tartus on the morning of Monday, November 2. According to the analyst, the ship fled the base due to military action in Syria and will likely leave the Mediterranean Sea altogether.
Droxford Maritime claims that the Russian submarine Novorossiysk is also in Tartus, but it is not yet known whether the submarine has left the base.
What is the danger for the Russian fleet in Syria
The founder of the Ukrainian OSINT project Frontelligence Insight, who writes on the social network X under the pseudonym “Tatarigami”, reported the advance of rebel forces that pose a direct threat to Russian military facilities in Syria.
“If early reports of anti-Assad forces making progress are correct, Hama has fallen and forces are moving towards Homs. This means that key Russian assets – the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base – could be cut off. Both are critical to Russia's presence in the Middle East and Africa,” the analyst stressed.
Another OSINT analyst, High Sutton, wrote in an article for Naval News that the Russian naval base in Tartus was under threat due to the successful offensive by rebels fighting against the Bashar al-Assad regime. In his opinion, the Russian command is aware of the danger, so it is taking precautions and moving ships out to sea.
“While it is not confirmed, it is believed that this movement of the ship is likely directly related to the situation on the ground. If so, this is the first visible sign that Russia is moving valuable assets out of the country,” Sutton noted.
The analyst added that it is easier for Russia to abandon the base when the front line is approaching it, since transferring reinforcements to Tartus is too difficult a task.
Unfavorable Prospects for the Russian Navy's Strategic Base
The naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean coast of Syria is a strategic asset for Russia. It was created during the Soviet Union in 1971, but after its collapse, it was not used for almost two decades.
When the civil war in Syria began in 2012, Russia brought its fleet there again. And with the beginning of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the base in Tartus has acquired even greater importance. Russia had increased its military presence there before the invasion to counter and deter direct NATO intervention, especially aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean.
The Russian Federation also deployed several large warships there that were to take part in the war against Ukraine. But these plans were thwarted by Turkey, which blocked the passage of Russian warships into the Black Sea.
According to Sutton, it seems possible that the Tartus base will be attacked or abandoned.
“Of course, it seems likely that Russian warships are leaving a once safe port. They are expected to sail from the Mediterranean to the Baltic. Perhaps along the way they will seek a temporary safe harbor in Algeria or Libya. If Russia abandons Tartus, this will have unpredictable geopolitical consequences,” the analyst emphasized.
Recall that Syrian forces opposing the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad have completely taken control of Aleppo, one of the country's largest cities. Dictator Bashar al-Assad's forces retreated under pressure from rebels.
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