ISW suggests that the current rate of armored vehicle losses in Russia may be higher.
The Russian army may soon face a supply shortage.
This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Russian military commanders may be unwilling or unable to accept the current scale and pace of equipment losses in the coming months and years, given limitations in Russian defense industrial production, the limited Russian stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment, and the inability of the Russian military to achieve operationally meaningful territorial advancement through maneuver,” the analysts noted.
The analysts recalled that Russian forces used significant numbers of armored vehicles during the first weeks of their offensive to capture Avdiivka in October 2023.
“Russian forces appear to have limited their use of armour in the area west of Avdiivka in recent months, although Russian forces have simultaneously stepped up their offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk, frequently conducting largely unsuccessful platoon- and company-level mechanized assaults in the area. Since July 2024, Russian forces have conducted several battalion-sized mechanized assaults in the western Donetsk region, most of which have resulted in significant armour losses in exchange for little territorial gain,” ISW added.
Russia's rate of armour losses may be higher
The UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies previously estimated that as of February 2024, Russian forces lost more than 3,000 armored combat vehicles annually. At the same time, ISW suggests that the current rate of armor losses in Russia may be higher.
American analysts believe that the Russian military command's willingness to achieve limited tactical successes in exchange for significant armor losses “will become increasingly expensive as Russian troops spend limited stocks of Soviet-era weapons and equipment in the coming months and years.”
“Russia will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without putting the Russian economy on a war footing and significantly increasing the rate of defense industrial production in Russia – a step that Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to avoid so far,” the ISW concluded. Institute.
Recall that an oil depot caught fire in the temporarily occupied Feodosia.
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