Russia can gain access to the necessary number of tankers to ship most of its oil outside the new price.
Russia will be able to partially circumvent the restrictions imposed by the G7 countries on the sale of Russian oil at a forced low price.
Reuters reports this.
Thus, the Russian Federation can gain access to the required number of tankers to ship the majority of its oil beyond the new price tag. Country can largely bypass the plan with their ships and services.
A US Treasury spokesman told the publication that estimates that 80-90% of Russian oil will still go beyond the restriction mechanism are not unfounded. Therefore, as a result, only one to two million barrels per day of Russian oil and oil products exports can be stopped if the country refuses to comply with the restrictions.
In September, the Russian Federation exported more than seven million barrels per day. Therefore, the country may experience financial and technical difficulties, but the world will get rid of 1-2% of its global supply.
According to the representative of the Ministry of Finance, the US knows that some ships change their country of origin and merchants move outside the G7 to evade the plan.
The official estimates that Russia will incur costs due to the need to operate longer flights and be relegated to the category of insurance and financing of poor quality. This gives the US optimism. Russia will subsequently be forced to sell oil within the price limit.
Shadow fleet for Russian oil
“Theoretically, there is a large enough shadow fleet to extend the supply of Russian oil after December 5,” Andrea Olivi, head of liquid cargo at commodities giant Trafigura, said.
Many of these shady vessels will be able to self-insure or be insured by Russian companies, she said.
JP Morgan considers the impact of the price cap to be mitigated as the Russian Federation almost completely bypasses the ban using Chinese, Indian and its own vessels. the average age of which is almost 20 years (this is relatively old by shipping standards). Therefore, as a result, oil exports from Russia in December may decrease by only 600 thousand barrels per day compared to September.
Not only ships are moving, but also the services necessary for their movement and the movement of oil cargo, said Norbert Rucker, head of the economic department of the Swiss asset management company Julius Baer.
“Oil traders trading Russian oil are no longer in Switzerland, Geneva or London. They are moving to the Middle East. If you look at Asian buyers of oil, ships, insurance, it seems that everything is increasingly being done from Asia,” Rooker said.
Recall In early October, the European Union approved the eighth package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions package contains a seven billion euro import ban on Russian products and a cap on oil prices. According to experts, limiting oil prices should significantly reduce the ability of the Russian Federation to finance the war against Ukraine.
Note, according to the European Commission report, the sanctions have “melted” Russia's ability to finance the war, but China and Turkey are helping it bypass Western restrictions.
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