On the eve, new information appeared: Russia is massively recruiting mercenaries for a & # 8220; business trip & # 8221; to Donbass. Such data were published by the Russian-language edition of Meduza.
Facts ICTV spoke with military experts and tried to find out how to assess such actions of the Russian Federation and whether this could indicate preparation for full-scale aggression.
What exactly did the journalists say about the recruitment of mercenaries
According to the publication, recruiters in the Russian Federation began to recruit groups of mercenaries, ostensibly for a & # 8220; military mission & # 8221; to the Ukrainian Donbass. It is still unknown what tasks they will be faced with.
Among the mercenaries there are former Russian servicemen who were part of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) and who participated in the hostilities.
The journalists talked with the mercenaries. and found out that negotiations about & # 8220; business trip & # 8221; to Donbass began in the fall of 2021. However, the majority of those surveyed received offers within the past few weeks.
Since the end of November 2021, offers have been received not only for professional mercenaries, but also for ordinary militants who have already participated in the war in Donbass. Recruiters, in conversations with potential candidates, voiced the amount of & # 8220; salaries & # 8221; – from 160 thousand to 320 thousand rubles per month.
Mercenaries are recruited into several groups.
& # 8220; recruitment & # 8221; and among residents of the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, who have combat experience.
One of the mercenaries, in a comment to reporters, expressed the opinion that such an extensive recruitment for the & # 8220; Ukrainian direction & # 8221; has not been observed for several years.
Some mercenaries refused the offer when they heard that they needed to go to Ukraine, since it is very difficult to fight against the Ukrainian army & # 8221 ;.
What military experts say
In a comment to ICTV Facts, military analyst of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Nikolay Beleskov stressed that There are two most probable hypotheses for the recruitment of mercenaries by Russia:
1. They want to strengthen the two so-called army corps created by Russia, which are located in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
2. They can be used to guard any objects in Donbass.
– This is either an attempt to strengthen the two army corps in the Donbass, in which there is a shortage of forces, and the quality of forces is also questionable due to, inter alia, the use of alcohol and drugs. Or they can be used to protect important economic objects, especially against the background of the fact that Russia is stepping up economic interaction with the Donbass, & # 8212; said the expert.
At the same time, Mykola Beleskov noted that the scenario of using these mercenaries in hostilities against Ukrainian troops cannot be ruled out … At the same time, the expert recalled that the Wagner PMC militants had already participated in the battles in Donbass in 2015 and were unsuccessful.
And now, when the Ukrainian army has significantly strengthened, it will be even more difficult for Russian mercenaries to fight it.
– If we are talking about scenarios of some kind of military action against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then, firstly, there is the experience of the end of January 2015. Then the militants of the Wagner PMC were involved in hostilities, in the assault on strongpoints. But even then, they did not succeed, despite the fact that the Ukrainian soldiers were called up for mobilization, did not have time to prepare and were not in the best way armed. In the conditions when the Ukrainian Armed Forces made great progress from 2014-2015 – both in terms of training and in terms of weapons – it will be even more difficult for them (mercenaries, & # 8212; Ed.) To fight the Armed Forces, & # 8212; explained the expert.
According to Beleskov, if mercenaries are indeed recruited for combat, they can be used as cannon fodder – in the first echelon to attack Ukrainian positions and help regular units of the Russian troops break through the defenses.
– Any private military companies have neither such experience nor such weapons to fulfill the task of breaking through the tactical depth of defense, which we have formed in the Donbas over the years. That is, involvement, of course, is possible in active hostilities, but exclusively as the first echelon, like cannon fodder, which will simplify the task of breaking through the defense. By itself, any PMC cannot fight the regular Armed Forces of Ukraine. They could not do this in 2015, they can not do it all the more now, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine have significantly strengthened. Therefore, it is impossible to exclude them (mercenaries, – Ed.) Involving them, but they certainly will not do without Russian regular troops, the military analyst emphasized.
At the same time, Nikolai Beleskov considers the first two hypotheses to be more realistic: on attracting to the protection of facilities in the Donbass and strengthening the so-called army corps.
А political consultant, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies Alexander Musienko is of the opinion that Russia can use mercenaries in any targeted military operations in the Donbas .
At the same time for a time, he stressed that Ukrainian troops are capable of resisting militants.
– Their recruitment may indicate that some targeted operations in certain areas or some kind of plan Russia may be trying to implement. This is true. But, on the other hand, it should be understood that the Ukrainian military during the war years learned to oppose such mercenaries. They studied both their tactics and methods of conducting sabotage campaigns or participating directly in hostilities. And we have already worked out the tactics of counteraction, – said Alexander Musienko.
As the expert noted, even Meduza's publication said that not all mercenaries want to go to the occupied territories of Donbass, because they are afraid of the Ukrainian military.
– This already testifies to the reputation of our army men who can and know how to fight back, – added Musienko.
What they say in Ukrainian intelligence
In recent weeks, Ukrainian intelligence has reported that the Russian invaders were training in the Donbas, improving the fortification equipment of forward positions and bypassing areas close to the collision line.
Motorized rifle, artillery and tank units were involved in the so-called training.
It was noted that the command of the Russian Armed Forces is trying to increase the readiness of the grouping of Russian occupation forces in Donbas to & # 8220; perform tasks & # 8221 ;.
In addition, according to intelligence, the occupiers are deploying tanks, mortars, 122-mm howitzers and self-propelled artillery units, violating the agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons. The enemy is developing new firing positions and warehouses for storing ammunition within the settlements located near the line of collision.
And mortar and artillery units are staffed with mercenaries from the Russian Federation (due to the lack of trained personnel among the inhabitants of the occupied Donbass).
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, there are 600 – 800 professional Russian military officers and generals permanently on the territory of the temporarily occupied Donbass. They hold command posts and lead the units of the occupying forces.
