A possible attack on Ukraine by Russia & # 8212; a topic for discussion for a long time. Western partners express their concerns, while the media, referring to their own sources, publish probable scenarios for the development of the situation.
So, recently the German edition of Bild published a map according to which the Russian attack on Ukraine is planned in three stages in early 2022.
Whether this is really possible and how experts assess the released data – read the material.
Possible scenarios for a Russian attack
According to Bild, which cites sources in NATO and the security services, Russia is considering plan to capture two-thirds of the territory of Ukraine together with Kiev. For this, Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to attract 175 thousand soldiers.
The media reports that Russia's attack on Ukraine can take place in three stages. At the first stage, the Russian Federation plans to conquer southern Ukraine to cut off Ukraine from the sea.
According to a Western intelligence officer, at this stage amphibious ships, which were moved from the Baltic Sea in the spring, can be used to transport tanks and troops from Crimea in the vicinity of Odessa.
Another military said that the aggressor country could conduct an amphibious operation to the east of Odessa – between the settlements of Fontanka and Koblevo.
On the second stage Russian aviation and ballistic missiles will try to weaken the military potential of Ukraine .
Tanks will try to cross the border in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, advance into the big cities of Dnipro and Poltava. The Russian army can cordon off cities, cut off the supply of electricity or gas to local residents.
The third stage provides for Russia's attack on Kiev … If Belarus joins it, the Russian Federation can cordon off Kiev from the north-east and north-west. But the sources of the publication are not sure whether the regime of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will take part in hostilities.
However, the plan provides that Russian troops can move approximately to the Korosten line & # 8212; Uman to cut off supplies from Western Ukraine.
Photo: Bild
How experts assess Russian attack scenarios
Nikolai Beleskov, a military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, considers the probability of a full-scale Russian attack on Ukraine to be doubtful.
He notes that the hypothetical offensive along the entire perimeter of the common border on the scale of World War II is a multi-front operation, which can only be compared with Operation Bagration (June-August 1944).
Then it was four fronts are involved. But the expert emphasizes that such operations require two things: experience and resources .
– All the modern experience of the Russian Armed Forces does not provide such a level of knowledge and skills. Limited interventions (invasions) in Ichkeria, Sakartvelo, Crimea, Donbass, Syria are not at all that. It is about synchronizing and scaling the actions of significant forces. And automated control systems never compensate for the lack of experience, the analyst is sure.
Nikolay Beleskov draws attention to the fact that strategic command-and-staff exercises can also be considered quite hothouse conditions against what will be in real life. In addition, the scale of the real offensive will not be the same.
The second factor questioning the likely Russian attack on Ukraine, the expert calls insufficient resources … After all, history shows that for such inter-front operations it will be necessary to attract millions of soldiers, tens of thousands of artillery, thousands of tanks and aircraft.
So far, we are talking only about 175 thousand soldiers. Nikolai Beleskov admits that firepower, accuracy of fire, and mobility of forces have increased during this time, which compensates for the decrease in armies. But 175 thousand soldiers is a drop in the ocean, given the territories that Russia is allegedly encroaching on.
– Therefore, can Russia expand the scale of aggression against Ukraine? Yes, maybe, unfortunately. But will this be a full-scale offensive? But this is already doubtful – there is neither experience/knowledge, nor resources for this, – the analyst is convinced.
The head of the Center for Military Legal Research Alexander Musienko is somewhat of a different opinion . According to him, the map of a possible attack, which was published by the German edition, is quite a serious thing, so it should not be ignored.
The expert does not exclude that the publication has a serious source in the intelligence of the United States or Great Britain, which provides certain data for the media in order to use public resonance to put pressure on Russia and attract the attention of the West.
& # 8212; The facts now indicate that the Russian military is concentrated from the northern, southern and eastern directions. Indeed, many experts suggest that their numbers are not enough for a full-scale invasion. But in order to parallel to making two or three hot spots for us , this is quite enough, – says Alexander Musienko in a commentary to ICTV Facts.
In general, the expert is convinced that the Ukrainian military-political leadership < strong> you need to take this information seriously. And do everything to prevent any provocations from Russia, as well as develop various counter scenarios.
It should be understood that not even sanctions against the Russian Federation, but the strengthening of Ukraine, can prevent any provocations from the Russian side.
What they say in the Ministry of Defense
Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov commented on the information in an interview published by Bild about possible scenarios for Russia's attack on Ukraine.
& # 8212; It is very important that the Ukrainian society does not succumb to panic. If they saw in the Kremlin that we were “shaking”, they could have tried to break in. And the demonstrative escalation is evidence that the Kremlin is failing in negotiations in the current format, when Russia is trying to play the role of a mediator. So he starts rattling his weapons, & # 8212; noted the minister.
Aleksey Reznikov believes that possible escalation should be prevented , since it will be a disaster for both Russia and Europe. According to the minister, by its actions the Russian Federation is trying to create a spectrum of possibilities and fertile ground for itself, in particular for a military scenario.
