Key points
- Russia is working on a possible offensive from the territory of Belarus against European countries, increasing the threats to the Baltics and Poland.
- NATO must decide on a decisive response to potential threats from Russia, which may use hybrid warfare.
- Russia can create artificial reasons for conflicts, the Alliance must be ready to defend its territories.
Russia may transfer its weapons to Belarus, thereby increasing the dangers for the Baltic states and Poland. This was partly facilitated by the policy of Donald Trump, who said that Europe should think about its own security.
This opinion was expressed to 24 Kanal by Polish military figure, division general, former commander of JW GROM (special forces), doctor of military sciences Roman Polko, adding that Trump brought Vladimir Putin out of isolation. He gave him time to catch his breath.
We need to show strength.
The US President has repeatedly demonstrated that the Indo-Pacific region and the Middle East are more important to him, while Europe itself must take care of security on its own continent. This is where the provocative statements of the Russians come from, because it is clear that the Kremlin does not have the strength to attack Europe or NATO.
But even the movement of nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction on the territory of Belarus is an alarming signal. It is important that the Alliance in such a situation decides on a strong response.
Our entire history shows that Russia and the Soviet Union despised weakness. They listen only to those partners who can show strength, the division general emphasized.
What scenarios are possible in the Suwalki corridor?
This corridor is a strategic territory between Lithuania and Poland. It separates Belarus from the Russian semi-exclave in the Kaliningrad region. In general, there are many scenarios for escalation in the region.
Russia can even artificially invent a reason: either assistance to some Russian minority, or memorial sites. This is also facilitated by activities under a foreign flag, – said Roman Polko.
Then escalation, transition to open military actions. Sometimes this happens under the guise of “little green men” to show an alleged rebellion of some national minority. In the end, Russia joins in as the so-called “dove of peace”. So, we are talking about very dangerous hybrid actions.
“We must remember that during the Zapad-2025 exercises, the Russians are systematically practicing an armed offensive from the territory of Belarus through Lithuania to the waters of Koenigsberg. Therefore, it is extremely important to implement what Joe Biden once said. He said that we will not give up a single piece of land,” the Polish general emphasized.
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Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia have nothing to give up, so preventive actions are needed. It is worthwhile to build up the deterrent potential earlier, which will show Russia that it is impossible to provoke the Alliance.
Will NATO React?
The Alliance should have resorted to concrete actions. But the biggest problem is that they talk about “martial law” and not war. Although “little green men”, interference in cyberspace, Internet trolls – all this is already elements of war.
Today I even hear one of the Polish politicians calling Russia not an enemy, but an adversary. An adversary is someone who plays fair, who sticks to the rules. Russia is an enemy and that is how it is written in NATO regulations, – noted Roman Polko.
So, the Alliance will act decisively. Even those countries that initially hoped that Russia would be guided by common sense, by its own interests, understand that nothing is happening.
Putin understands perfectly well that if the war ends, his power will end too, so he will not give up war and forceful solutions. If he is given in on certain issues, he will simply move on.
