A new ballistic surprise for the Russians is being prepared in Kiev.
Russia has been “burning” for several days now. In public groups, they have already started talking not about the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, but about the Kursk People's Republic. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have named 4 options for how Russia will respond to the invasion of the Kursk region. While the Russian command is thinking about what to do with the hell that is happening in the Kursk direction, Kiev is preparing a new ballistic “surprise” for the Russians.
See all the details of possible scenarios for the development of events in the TSN.UA exclusive.
While the Russian command is thinking about what to do with the hell that is happening in the Kursk direction, Kiev is preparing a new ballistic “surprise” for the Russians. Read on for all the details of the expected scenarios.
Russia is “burning”
As it became known on August 6, the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly entered the territory of the Kursk region and began to take control of a number of border settlements. Ukrainian forces are apparently present in areas up to 35 kilometers from the international border with the Sumy region. This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War.
Moreover, Russian milibloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces had advanced northwest of Sudzha to Malaya Loknya and to the outskirts of Cherkassy Porechye; to the northeast of the city – in the area of Kruglenkoe, Martynovka, Bolshoi Soldatskoe; to the east – near Mirny.
4 Kremlin scenarios
And while our military seals are simply doing their job on the territory of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin is thinking what to do with all this hell? And it turns out that there are as many as four scenarios of how Russia can respond to those outrages, which occur in the Kursk direction.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War write that the Russian military command can use existing conscripts, FSB border guards, the Russian Guard and other irregular forces already deployed in the international border area.
“The Russian military command may use this option if it assesses that lower-quality forces, probably less well-equipped, can effectively stop Ukrainian forces, which are reportedly successfully using innovative tactics and technological capabilities.”
As for the second scenario, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, the z-command may decide to use the Northern Group of Forces deployed in the border areas of the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions.
However, there are pitfalls here. Experts from the Institute for the Study of War question the ability of the northern group to conduct effective defensive operations. Moreover, if this group of troops is redeployed to push back Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, will such a maneuver not create vulnerabilities in the Russian defense in other parts of the border? ? Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War cannot give a precise answer.
And here a logical question arises – could the Kremlin decide to roll over operational reserves accumulated for the offensive actions planned for the summer of 2024 from other places on the front? ? This option is also possible, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War note. Z-Command may decide to retain existing operational reserves intended for priority sectors of the front, in particular to maintain a higher tempo of the offensive in the Donetsk region, and instead transfer front-line units from lower priority sectors to the Kursk region.
And finally, the fourth likely option of what Russian troops might do in response to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance deep into the Kursk region.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War note that the Russian military command may try to preserve the forces it has sent to the Kursk region, but at the same time transfer significant air and strike units to the area.
“However, it is unclear whether the current Russian forces deployed in the Kursk region will be able to use the effect of aviation. It is also unclear whether large-scale air operations over the Kursk region will disrupt Russia's ability to regularly use tactical aviation to carry out glider bombing strikes along the entire front line,” – says. in breakdown.
Ukraine is preparing a ballistic “surprise”
In turn, Ukraine is trying to negotiate with the United States on ATACMS strikes on Russian airfields. According to The Washington Post, official Kyiv is negotiating with the United States to obtain permission to use ATACMS ballistic missiles to strike military airfields in Russia.
“Ukrainian officials have asked Washington to allow the Defense Forces to use American long-range ATACMS missiles to hit airfields that Russia is using in response to the invasion. If approved, such a decision could allow Kiev to hold part of the Kursk region for some time“, the report says.
Also, one of the presidential advisers, Volodymyr Zelensky, on condition of anonymity, noted to the publication that ATACMS strikes are needed to hit fighters at Russian airfields that the aggressor is using for retaliatory strikes. This will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retain the areas of the Kursk region they have taken under control, writes RBC-Ukraine, citing The Washington Post.
Offensive of the Defense Forces in the Kursk Region of the Russian Federation
In conclusion, I will remind you what is happening in the Kursk People's Republic. And there is panic there, because no one expected that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would dare to set foot on sacred Russian soil. But things did not turn out as expected.
Although, as far as the Russian land is concerned, there are questions here! In particular, the city of Sudzha, already controlled by Ukrainian troops, was the capital of Soviet Ukraine from November 29 to December 27, 1918. 60% of the population considered Ukrainian their native language.
Recall that the Austrian general assessed the offensive in Kursk.
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