Researchers give Mbappe and Co. a 15 percent probability of a title
A research team with the participation of the University of Innsbruck simulated the European Football Championship starting on Friday (June 11th) 100,000 times on the computer. The favorite has emerged as world champion France with a probability of 14.8 percent, followed by England, Spain and, on an equal footing, Germany and defending champion Portugal. On the list of scientific favorites, Austria ranks exactly in the middle of the 24 participants in twelve.
In view of the poor dress rehearsal on Sunday in the 0-0 draw against Slovakia, the 1.5 percent probability calculated by the scientists for a red-white-red European Championship title is almost astronomical. In Group C, which was fairly even behind co-favorites Netherlands, at least in the draw – other opponents are North Macedonia and the Ukraine – Austria had a good chance of finishing in the knockout round of the last 16. The national team did not succeed in this at the previous two EURO appearances in 2008 and 2016.
“According to our model, the favorites in the group are clearly the Netherlands, but this is followed by Austria, which has an 80.9 percent probability of reaching the round of 16. That is much more likely than for Ukraine and North Macedonia,” explains Achim lineis from der University of Innsbruck. According to the comprehensive simulation, a further way through the tournament than to the round of 16 is then already much less likely.
The forecast of the team led by scientists from Ghent (Belgium), from the Technical Universities of Dortmund and Munich and the University of Molde (Norway) combines several statistical models regarding the strengths of the teams with information about the team structures, such as the player market value, the number of Champions League players involved or the club performance of individual players as well as betting odds of common providers and socio-economic factors of the country of origin, such as population and gross domestic product, it said on Monday in a broadcast from the University of Innsbruck. The computer simulations were then played in the usual EM mode.
That the truth lies in the field and that a lot can happen in football has also been shown here: For the French team, it was only enough for the title in just under 15 percent of the simulated tournaments. England (13.5 percent), Spain (12.3 percent) as well as Portugal and Germany (10.1 percent each) followed closely behind. These close gaps would illustrate that there is no outstanding representative in the circle of favorites this year.
It is true that the Innsbruck model from Linieis, which is based on adjusted odds from betting providers, was able to correctly predict the European Championship finals as early as 2008 and 2010 and 2012 world and European champions Spain. But you provide “just probabilities, not certainties, and a winning probability of 15 percent also means that 85 percent of the team cannot win the tournament,” explained the researcher.
It is particularly difficult on the computer in Group F, which is made up of Germany, France, Portugal and Hungary. However, those who prevail there have a good chance of going far. Accordingly, co-hosts Hungary's chances of winning the title are correspondingly low – namely at zero percent. The team is considered a blatant outsider in its group. Also at the bottom of the favorites list are Austria's opening opponents North Macedonia (Sunday, 6:00 p.m. / live ORF 1) and Finland, each with a victory rate of 0.1 percent.
(SERVICE – The forecast online:
