Leading analyst of Mobile Research Group Eldar Murtazin commented to Rambler on the statement of the special presidential envoy for digital and technological development Dmitry Peskov that full-fledged quantum communication lines will enter commercial operation in 10-15 years.
According to the expert, during the period indicated by Peskov, only elements of quantum communication may appear, but not a full-fledged technology.
“To make the topic of quantum communication clear, I will give an example. When they talk about the beauty of women, the canons by which they are judged are constantly changing. In the Middle Ages it was one canon, in the Neolithic – another canon, today, in general, a third … And they do not fit together in any way. Also, quantum connections. The closest examples are artificial intelligence algorithms. Very often the word “algorithms” is thrown out, and it turns out that “we have artificial intelligence”, which, in fact, does not exist At the moment. With quantum couplings absolutely the same story. In order to organize not quantum communication algorithms, but a full-fledged quantum communication, we need only a couple of components. It is necessary to create two quantum computers, these are quantum processors, this is a bus that can work , etc. Today such prototypes exist in the world, but there are few of them. In Russia, at the moment, such a computer has not been created, and is unlikely to be created in the next five years. But the mathematics behind the mi developments, it is understandable. And everything depends on the mathematical apparatus. What Dmitry Peskov is talking about is the elements of quantum communication, but not a full-fledged quantum communication. The advantages over current communication systems are obvious – in optics we get a lot of data transmission, encryption and other things. But this system is not a full-fledged quantum communication. It is a kind of hybrid system that uses algorithms to achieve improvement in one or more parameters. Let me give you another example, also from the field of technology. When we had telephones, there were female telephone operators who connected the lines of subscribers at the telephone exchange. Then the girls were replaced. Numbering appeared, as well as mechanical stations that learned how to connect subscribers on their own. But their essence has not changed – we connect two wires. It was a completely different matter when automatic telephone exchanges (PBX) appeared, which did not connect wires, but knew how to redirect the signal. Probably, what we call today quantum communication lines is exactly the replacement of telephone operators with some kind of mechanical unit that does the same thing, but better, faster and more reliable. The next leap is the transition to “ATC”, where mechanics are not needed in principle. But I do not think that in the next 15-20 years we will see communication lines of this level. Usually the problem is the lack of computing power to implement some algorithms. At the same time, in the matter of creating a quantum connection, everyone understands how to do it technically, but there is no mathematical algorithm. That is, we are waiting for scientists, first of all mathematicians, to create models, calculate them, then we will get the opportunity to embody them in “hardware”, – said Murtazin.
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