The dictator is desperately trying to undermine the coherent strategic vision of international support for Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West will allow Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia. This was a reaction to Western discussions on lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
ISW writes about this.
Complete contradictions
Thus, the Kremlin dictator announced his intentions to make changes to the Russian nuclear doctrine. It says that Russia should use nuclear weapons only in “exceptional cases” of threats to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Putin defined Russia’s strategic defeat in Ukraine as “the end of Russian statehood, which has a thousand-year history.” The President of the Russian Federation added that it would be better for Russia to fight to the end.
Analysts note that Putin's rhetoric is deliberately aimed at portraying Russian aggression in Ukraine as an existential war for Russian sovereignty.
“Putin mentioned the possibility of lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, meaning that he reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if his forces are decisively defeated in a war to hold off Ukraine's allies from achieving the common strategic goal of decisively defeating Russia's invasion of Ukraine – a result that meets the interests of the West”
The Kremlin's nuclear blackmail continues to aim at discouraging Ukraine's allies from resolutely committing to repelling Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.
“And therefore it is unlikely that it will lead to a real nuclear escalation. Russia's strategic defeat in Ukraine does not threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia (but may threaten the stability of the Putin regime).”
The Kremlin has not engaged in nuclear escalation since Russia's devastating defeats around the Kyiv, Kharkov or Kherson regions in 2022. Of course, they did not threaten Russian sovereignty or territorial integrity. Putin's own nuclear threats have been riddled with controversy since 2022.
“Putin argued that Ukraine was aggressive towards Russia, but threatened the occupied “Donbass republics” as Putin illegally annexed them. Discussing potential changes to Russian nuclear doctrine, Putin also noted that Russia does not need the ability to launch a preemptive nuclear strike. Both of these statements are incompatible with the idea that Russia is waging an existential war.”
Putin noted that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory in the Belgorod region using Western weapons do not cross the supposed so-called “red line”, which would lead to nuclear escalation.
ISW continues to believe that Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West—and will likely lose—if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin.
Recall that Ukraine is again facing a nuclear danger. This time, British intelligence warns about this, which allegedly informed the country's leadership and military that the Russian Federation is ready to use nuclear weapons.
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