Putin is expected to use the scale of his victory to further aggression in Ukraine. Many Russians do not know what will happen next.
Presidential “elections” were held in Russia, in which Vladimir Putin won with more than 87% of the vote. He cynically stated that the vote reflected a desire for “internal consolidation” that would allow the Russian Federation to “operate effectively on the front line” as well as in other areas such as the economy.
The New York Times provides five conclusions that can be drawn from Putin's victory.
The 71-year-old dictator will now be president until at least 2030, entering his fifth term in a country whose Constitution supposedly limits the number of presidents to two. The publication writes that the vote, the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, was aimed both at creating a public mandate for war and restoring Putin's image as the embodiment of stability. However, Russians are somewhat alarmed about what changes the vote might bring.
1. Although Putin's victory was predetermined, his performance exceeded all expectations
There is a pattern in presidential elections involving Putin: his results get better every time. In 2012, he received 63.6% of the vote, and in 2018, after extending his presidential powers to six years, he received 76.7%. Experts expected the Kremlin to get a result of about 80% this time, but Putin received an even higher percentage closer to 90%, although the vote count was not yet final.
Loyal opposition parties hardly registered. None of the other three candidates eligible to vote received more than five percent of the vote.
Presidential elections in Russia have long been a means of making the entire system appear legitimate. But such a big advantage for Putin, who rewrote the Constitution to allow him to remain in the Kremlin until 2036, when he will be 83, risks undermining that authority. This may prompt questions from an increasingly authoritarian Kremlin about why Russia needs such simulation exercises.
2. The Kremlin failed to fully achieve the image of national unity it sought
Putin always strives to project an image of political stability and control, which carefully choreographed presidential votes are designed to polish. But this time there were three events related to opposition politics that darkened this image.
The first was in January, when thousands of Russians across the country lined up to sign petitions needed to put Boris Nadezhdin, a previously little-known politician against the war in Ukraine, on the ballot. The Kremlin did not allow him to participate in the elections.
Then in February, Alexei Navalny, Putin’s most vocal political opponent, suddenly died in an Arctic prison. Thousands of mourners who attended his funeral in Moscow chanted against Putin and the war, and even during voting, people continued to lay flowers on his grave.
Navalny's organization approved a plan for a mass turnout of voters at noon in silent protest against Putin and the war. Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, who voted at the Russian Embassy in Berlin, said she wrote her husband's name on the ballot and thanked everyone who waited in long lines at the protest.
But it was difficult to see how the protest could turn into any kind of sustainable movement, especially in the face of repressive measures that have become more severe since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022. For example, Putin's government detained hundreds of people publicly mourning Navalny.
3. Putin will claim a popular mandate to continue the war in Ukraine
Putin's campaign and the vote itself were framed by war. His December announcement that he would run for another term came in response to a question from a military veteran who called on him to run. The election symbol, a checkmark in the blue, white and red colors of the Russian flag, resembled the letter “V,” which is also sometimes used to show support for Russian soldiers.
Voting took place in the occupied regions of Ukraine, although Russia does not fully control the four regions it annexed. There were elements of coercion when poll workers brought ballot boxes to people's homes, accompanied by an armed soldier. In the occupied regions, Putin's advantage was even higher than in Russia itself.
Putin has never admitted that he started the war by invading Ukraine. According to him, he was forced to conduct a “special military operation” to prevent the West from using Ukraine as a Trojan horse to undermine Russia.
He described the election turnout, which was more than 74 percent of more than 112 million registered voters, as “due to the fact that we are literally forced to take up arms to defend the interests of our citizens, our people.”
4. War will continue to remain the main principle for the Kremlin
In his annual State of the Union address in February, his signature campaign speech, Putin promised both guns and butter, arguing that Russia could pursue its military goals even as it invested in the economy , infrastructure and long-standing goals such as increasing the Russian population.
The country's economy grew 3.6 percent in 2023, accounting for about 40 percent of government military spending, according to government statistics. The production of ammunition and other materiel is booming.
Putin also proposed that war veterans form the core of the “new elite” to govern the country, as their service has proven their commitment to Russia's best interests. The proposal is expected to accelerate the trend of government officials expressing muscular patriotism, especially as Putin seeks to replace his older allies with a younger generation.
5. Russians are concerned about what will happen next
The period after any presidential election is the time when the Kremlin usually introduces unpopular policies. For example, after 2018, Putin raised the retirement age. Russians are wondering whether a new military mobilization or increased internal repression is just around the corner.
Russia has annexed more than 18 percent of Ukrainian territory, and the front line has remained static for months. Any new Russian offensive is expected to take place during the warm, dry summer months, and the Russian military may try to increase the territory it controls ahead of any upcoming negotiations.
Recall, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky commented on the holding of “elections” in Russia in an evening video message on March 17.
According to him, the Russian dictator “simply fell ill with power and is doing everything to rule for life, and there is no such evil that he will not commit in order to prolong his personal power.”
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