Many in Taiwan fear that it is only a matter of time before Xi, like Putin, moves from words to action.
When Taiwanese President Kolas Yotak's former spokeswoman watched Tucker Carlson's recent interview with Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin, she thought of something.
Putin and Xi Jinping are similar,” she said. “Because they both believe that they represent the old imperial power in their countries.” And they are the elected leaders who can protect their countries from foreign powers. They think they are chosen. And they want to stay in power forever. But it's terrible. And this is nonsense.”
Bullshit or not, Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine is now in its third year, costing tens of thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars—and counting.
TSN.ua offers you an adaptation of CNN material, in which the author draws parallels between Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine and Xi’s claims regarding Taiwan.
Partnership without restrictions
Putin justifies his military aggression against Ukraine in part by citing historical images and nationalism. His argument stems from the narrative of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who has consistently framed Beijing's claims to Taiwan through the lens of historical justice and national rejuvenation.
“Everyone who cares about democracy, everyone who cares about human rights, should pay attention to this,” Colas warned, referring to the parallels between Putin's justifications for invading Ukraine and Xi Jinping's rhetoric on Taiwan and the threat that the ambitions of both autocratic leaders pose to these democracies.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued a similar warning earlier this month, pointing to Putin's 2022 visit to Beijing days before his full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
“(Putin) signed an agreement with President Xi where they promised each other a partnership without any restrictions,” Stoltenberg said at the Munich Security Conference. “And we see that China and Russia (are getting) closer and closer. So, of course, if President Putin wins in Ukraine, it is not only a challenge for the Ukrainians… it is a message not only to Putin, but also to Xi, when they use military force, they get what they want. What is happening in Ukraine today can happen in Taiwan tomorrow.”
China's ruling Communist Party says the self-governing democracy of Taiwan is part of its territory, although it has never controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary.
China objects to comparisons between Taiwan and Ukraine, pointing out that few countries recognize the island's sovereignty.
But concerns about possible parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine—or notes Xi may be making as he observes the world's reaction to the Russian war—have been amplified by China and Xi's own response to it .
Beijing refused to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, despite the fact that it intends to maintain the territorial integrity of the country in accordance with international norms. He also claims impartiality in the conflict, but continues to strengthen economic, strategic and diplomatic ties with Russia, becoming a key economic lifeline for the sanctions-hit economy.
Illusions of national identity
Critics say Putin's interview with Carlson was a “softball” that gave the Russian president a platform to lay out his territorial ambitions for Ukraine.
He spoke of historical right, rejected outside interference, and justified Russia's unprovoked brutality against the former Soviet state as necessary to protect its national interests.
And he went even further, putting forward, in the opinion of many, the strange argument that Ukrainian soldiers who die en masse defending their democratic homeland actually identify themselves as Russians.< /p>
Suddenly, Ukrainian soldiers shouted from there in Russian. Ideal Russians, they say, Russians do not give up, and they all died. They still identify themselves as Russians. What is happening is, to a certain extent, an element of civil war,” Putin said in his delirium.
Putin's critics say he appears to live in his own autocratic fantasy world, surrounded by an echo chamber of sycophants (Carlson is apparently one of them) who are either too dreamy or too afraid to confront Putin's portrayal of Ukraine as purely Russian, while its citizens still identify themselves as such.
The author of the article indicates that he was in Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, covering Russia’s war against Ukraine and observed exactly the opposite sentiment.
Not a single Ukrainian told him that he identified himself as a Russian. Everyone he interacted with spoke passionately (in Ukrainian) of their burning hatred for the Russians, who had bombed and brutalized their war-torn nation, tearing apart families and entire communities struggling with untold losses.
Observers say public opinion matters little to leaders like Putin and Xi, who have managed to consolidate near-absolute power by suppressing dissent, controlling the flow of information and suppressing potential threats.
For Putin, Ukraine's historical ties to Russia are deeply rooted in centuries of global history, cultural exchanges and political alliances—enough to justify its inclusion in the Russian sphere of influence.
Xi also tied “reunification” with Taiwan to his large-scale strategy of “national rejuvenation” of China.
Taiwan, inhabited by indigenous people for thousands of years, was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynasty, which ruled the island for more than 200 years – without complete control – before losing it to Imperial Japan in 1895.
The island remained a Japanese colony for half a century until the end of World War II, when it came under the control of the ruling Nationalist government of China.
In 1949, after being defeated by the Communists in the bloody Chinese Civil War, General Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan, moving the seat of government of the Republic of China to the island.
Xi played on Taiwan's historical ties to the mainland and reinforced the Communist Party's long-standing rhetoric of taking control of the island.
“We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and maximum efforts, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the ability to take all necessary measures – this is solely aimed against the interference of external forces and a few aspiring separatists of Taiwan independence,” Xi said in his speech at the 2022 Grand Party Meeting.
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He also tried to play on a common identity. “People on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese and share a natural kinship and a national identity built on kinship and mutual assistance. This is a fact that no one and no force can ever change,” Xi said in 2019.
Surveys from the Taiwan National Election Research Center at Chengchi University, which has been tracking changes in Taiwan's population's self-identification since 1992, show that in 2023, nearly 62% of Taiwanese identified exclusively as Taiwanese, compared with a greater number of those who identified as Chinese. .4%, which is a record low in the history of the country. China blames the corrupt influence of so-called external forces such as the United States.
Fears that Taiwan will become the “next Hong Kong” contributed significantly to President Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in 2020 and helped her Democratic Progressive Party secure an unprecedented third term in office this year – despite to what Taipei described as a coordinated campaign of military conquest of Beijing.
These results highlight a key feature of Taiwan's political landscape: many citizens value their democratic institutions, freedoms, and distinct identity.
Such sentiments probably do not matter to Xi, who has essentially secured lifelong sole rule on the mainland.
One common belief—both in Taiwan and beyond—is that Xi is determined to bring Taiwan back into China's communist orbit by 2049—the 100th anniversary of the party's rule on mainland China. Observers say any smaller goal would undermine Beijing's authority and Xi's leadership.
Illustrious past, uncertain future
By using images of former greatness in relation to the West, Xi and Putin seek to bolster their legitimacy for domestic audiences and demonstrate strength in the face of friction with the West.
Today, Xi is expanding the Chinese military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since World War II.
China analyst Steve Tsang, author of the book “If China Attacks Taiwan,” once told the author of the material that, by comparison, Xi’s military buildup is greater than that of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan combined. Xi already commands the world's largest navy, and his ambitions in nuclear, space and man-made warfare are advancing at lightning speed.
Wen-Ti Sun, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Center, notes the need for democratic unity to curb authoritarian aggression, citing in particular Xi's strong leadership and its implications for Taiwan.
“Xi Jinping’s leadership is characterized by a high degree of projective self-confidence. You constantly hear Xi Jinping talking about how the East is rising and the West is declining,” he says. “With this increased projected confidence comes increased demand for the results that Xi Jinping must achieve, and that is why you see Xi Jinping becoming much less patient on the Taiwan issue.”
In recent years, China has significantly increased its military intimidation of Taiwan, using a variety of tactics to assert its territorial claims, including frequent air incursions, naval maneuvers and large-scale military exercises conducted near the island .
Analysts say the military buildup, modernization efforts and deployment of advanced weapons further underscore Beijing's intentions to coerce and intimidate Taiwan, raising regional tensions.
When it comes to the future of Taiwan and comparisons with Ukraine, analogies have their limits, and each must be understood and viewed on its own terms.
On the one hand, Taiwan has received significant international support, albeit unofficially, including from Washington, which complicates any attempt by Beijing to annex the island by force. In addition, the US commitment to provide Taiwan with remedies under the Taiwan Relations Act further differentiates the situation from the situation in Ukraine.
However, how the rest of the world views Putin and signs of Xi's aggression around Taiwan and the broader region could affect Xi's calculations, experts say.
And for those who have noticed how Putin's dismissal of Ukraine as an “artificial state” reflects Xi's insistence that all Taiwan-related issues are “internal affairs”, this uncompromising stance is troubling.
Many in Taiwan fear that it is only a matter of time before Xi, like Putin, moves from words to action.
Author information: Will Ripley< /strong> is CNN's senior international correspondent based in Taipei.
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