According to experts, the war is in the political interests of Vladimir Putin.
Some experts are convinced that for Russian President-dictator Vladimir Putin what really matters is confrontation with the West, not victory in Ukraine, and that by doing so he will attack another state in Europe, no matter what happens with the war against Ukraine . In their opinion, the war is in Putin’s political interests, so he will fight as long as he lives.
Russian journalist and military analyst Mikhail Zigar writes about this in the publication Foreign Affairs.
According to unnamed individuals, Estonia and Latvia, where a significant part of the population is Russian-speaking, could become potential targets for aggression. Moscow could use this as a pretext for an invasion, claiming to “protect its citizens from harassment.”
“People close to the Russian president say he sees the invasion of Ukraine only as one front in a conflict with the West. This means Russia's success on the battlefield may not be enough to please Putin. To defeat its real enemies in Brussels and Washington, Putin may feel he needs to attack a NATO member,” the article says.
Such a scenario would pose a serious challenge to NATO based on the principle of collective defense. Capturing territories such as the city of Narva in Estonia could provoke a reaction from the Alliance. In addition, the Kremlin will thus test NATO's readiness to protect its members.
Once upon a time, experts say, the Russian elite avoided the risk of nuclear conflict, but the current situation indicates a change in attitude. The Kremlin hopes that NATO will not be able to effectively respond to aggression, considering the West tired and divided.
The crisis in the Baltics could become a tool for Moscow to try to undermine US President Joe Biden ahead of the presidential election, reinforcing the image of weakness and incompetence of the American leader.
Many in Russia believe that Putin will not hesitate to attack the Baltic countries. The war against Ukraine, which has united the Russian elite, can continue indefinitely, regardless of changes in the international arena.
Will there be a response from NATO
As Mikhail Zigar noted, previously the Russian elite had no desire to risk a nuclear conflict. But now many are convinced that NATO will not dare to respond.
“They see the West as tired and divided, and therefore much less interested in fighting Russia. They see US President Joe Biden and European leaders as weak. In this context, they believe that NATO will not unite unanimously to defend a country under attack. But Russian elites believe “that NATO will be engulfed in so much panic and chaos that the Alliance will do little and destroy trust in Western governments,” the journalist notes.
From Kharkov to Kyiv
The elites of the Russian Federation do not have a common vision of what can be considered a victory in the war. Optimists hope that one big breakthrough by the Russians at the front will force Ukraine to agree to the current status quo and abandon its intentions to expel the Russians from the occupied territories. In this context, in particular, the capture of Kharkov with its actual destruction in the process is considered.
However, Russian elites consider this option to be the least terrifying of all possible options. According to one businessman close to the Kremlin, Putin will not be satisfied with capturing only the Kharkiv region. The only result he will agree to is the capture of Kyiv. As the author of the publication notes, the Kremlin dictator considers the Ukrainian capital the cradle of Russian civilization, and therefore has “almost mystical” views on this city.
Those expecting such a scenario believe that the second attempt to capture Kyiv will also be carried out from the territory of Belarus along the same route through the Chernobyl nuclear power plant zone. Many in Moscow believe that this time the Russian army is more seasoned and Ukraine's reserves are weakened, so the Russians can win. According to Russian elites, Ukrainians are simply too tired to defend themselves again.
As a businessman close to the Kremlin said on condition of anonymity, dictator Putin became too fond of war, which helped him mobilize society , arrest some dissidents, kill others and force the rest to leave the country. The war has also united elites who now feel unwelcome in the West and see Putin as their only hope for a good life. As a consequence, the invasion means there is less pressure on Putin than ever before.
“The idea of an endless war in Ukraine frightens the Russian elite, who still hope that the invasion will end. They dream of quickly returning to peacetime on February 23, 2022. But for now they are silent. They do not see a way back,” – notes the author of the article.
Recall that the political scientist made a pessimistic forecast about when Russia will be ready to end the war.
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