< IMG SRC = "https://img.tsn.ua/cached/316/tsn-7a7Afafe7a64cd96a891771cf6b F5b51/Thumbs/1036x648/78/16/C2904C0FB1F666DA90D42BE4EFA131678.JPEG " />~ 60 >< strong > Russian Central Bank warned the Kremlin about the threat of collapse of the oil market, which would become an economy. < strong > 60 ~/p ~ ~~ 60 > central bank in Russia. politicians that the United States and OPEC are able to fill the market for oil, and this may lead to a repetition of a long collapse of the prices of the 1980s, which became one of the reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union.
< p > writes Reuters about this, which gained access to the relevant document.< p > Russians of Russia announced its warning about a possible collapse in oil prices in a presentation prepared for discussion under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in February. This warning appeared a few weeks before Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump began negotiations on the cessation of war in Ukraine. the head of the White House has already stated that it could impose new sanctions against Moscow if a peace agreement has not been reached. Trump also promised to increase the production of American oil and called on Saudi Arabia – the leader of the OPEC – to build production to support the global economy.
< p > Russian Central Bank in its presentation did not specify under what conditions of OPEC and the United States can saturate the market with oil and how likely these risks are.
62 > 62 ~In previous reports, which were also seen by Reuters journalists, oil prices in Aty of one of the risks for the economy have already been mentioned. However, earlier the Central Bank did not explain how a long period of low prices could arise.
< p > in turn the Russian Ministry of Economics has prepared a presentation for this discussion, pointing out other threats to the economy, for example, weak investment activity, growth in expenses and “problem debts”. ~ 60 > < p > it is noted that so far there are no signs that OPEC plans to change his supply policy, which could lead to a sharp increase in oil production.
< p > although the United States can increase oil production, the bulk of growth will probably be in other countries that are not part of the OPEC. In particular, we are talking about Gayan, Brazil and Kazakhstan, where world oil giants increase production.
< p >< strong > “significant risk is the price of oil” , – indicated in one of the slides viewed by journalists.
< p > Among the main threats, “a significant increase in production in the USA and outside OPEC.” < p > < p > it was noted that the reserve capacities of OPEC are at a historically high level and are equal to the volume of Russian oil exports.
< p > “historical precedent-after a period of high oil prices in 1974-1985, a 18-year (!) Period of low prices came,” it was noted in a presentation where this thesis was emphasized by three exclamation signs. 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > < h2 > prices for oil and decay of the USSR< p > for Russia the energy sector has always been both force and weakness. So, when oil prices fell, the economy experienced serious blows. This had significant geopolitical consequences, as in 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up.
< p >The collapse of oil prices of the 1980s made it impossible for the USSR to continue the arms race from the United States. < strong > financial difficulties worsened and led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
< p >< strong > Currently, oil prices are kept at about 70 dollars per barrel. This is a comfortable level for Russia , because its budget is designed for a price of $ 69.7 per barrel of oil.< p > As the professor of the financial university under the Russian government, Igor Yushkov, explained, the concern of the Central Bank is simultaneously caused by low oil prices and strong ruble. < p > “probably the budget is not fulfilled, since it is already the end of March, and we do not reach the parameters that we planned for 2025,” said Yushkov. < p >Since 1991, Russia has experienced several financial crises caused by low oil prices. So, in 1998, Moscow announced a default on external debt after a drop in oil prices up to 10 dollars. for barrel.
< p > in 2008 the Russian authorities were forced to use reserves to stabilize the economy and prevent unemployment after a fall in prices due to a mortgage crisis in the United States. ~ 60 > 62 ~ < p > Over the past 15 years, oil prices have also decreased sharply, in particular during the pandemic of coronavirus. But these short -term fluctuations have not created serious threats to the financial stability of the Kremlin.
< p > the authors of the article noted that in March, Putin held negotiations with the hereditary Prince of Saudi Arabia by Mohammed Bin Salman, noting the “importance” of the OPEC agreement+ for the stability of the global oil market.
62 ~ < p > “the commitment of Russia and Saudi Arabia was emphasized to fulfill the obligations within the framework of OPEC+,” was indicated in the Kremlin’s statement based on the results of the telephone conversation. ~ 60 > 62 ~ < p > according to the estimates of the International Energy Agency, the total volume of the reserve capacities of OPEC is 5.3 million barrels per day. This approximately corresponds to the Russian export of oil and oil products.
< p > Saudi Arabia said that it could increase the production of 9 million barrels per day to a maximum of 12 million barrels for several months. < P > Recall that in December 2024 the article by The Telegraph said that due to problems in the Russian economy, the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, told Putin to prepare for $ 45-50 per barrel of oil. With the adjustment for inflation, this corresponds to the levels that have been brought to bankruptcy of the USSR.
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