~6 0~p>The Russian dictator is preparing for a long and grueling war against Ukraine and the West.
The latest reshuffle in the Russian government shows that the dictator Putin plans to radically change the country and transform it into a constantly mobilized state, waging constant wars with profound consequences for the rest of the world.
Russia expert Mark Galeotti writes about this in his article for The Times.
The main change in the government was the removal of the head of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu from his position for quite a long time. His place was taken by former Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Bilousov.
“The new man, an economist by training, is no more a soldier than his predecessor, but he is an organizer and planner, tasked with preparing the ministry—and the country—for a long war,” says the author of the article.
The expert recalled that during his speech in the Federation Council, Bilousov said that his priorities are the integration of the defense and civilian economies, which in fact means transferring the country's economy to the needs of war, as well as making the ministry “truly open to innovation,” which means more than just buying the latest technology and drones.
“While maintaining pressure on long-established targets in eastern Ukraine, such as the town of Vremya Yar, Russia also launched a new operation in the north, towards Kharkov, that demonstrated a level of finesse that has not been its signature in this war. The force is not large enough to take Kharkov, but their goal is unclear: the intention could have been to bring the city into artillery range, create a buffer zone against Ukrainian attacks across the border, or threaten Sumy in the west,” writes Galeotti.
The expert noted that the Ukrainian authorities now face a rather unpleasant choice. Ukraine does not have many reserves, because to strengthen the new front it is necessary to withdraw troops, while Russia introduces new innovations – now that it has become so dangerous for both sides to deliver armored personnel carriers to the front line, Russian troops use motorcycles and buggies. mobility in the battlefield.
“The assaults are increasingly led by so-called 'turtle tanks'. They may look lumbering as they rush forward under unrefined metal barn-like superstructures, but together with sophisticated jamming systems and mine-clearing rollers they help protect vehicles and their occupants from drones.” missiles and mines, which are the Ukrainians’ best response to armored attacks,” writes the author.
He stated that this shows how Russians are learning, abandoning rigid adherence to doctrine and “blocking the book of creative Ukrainians.”
Galeotti noted that the issue of the head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Gerasimov occurred despite, and not thanks to, the top leadership of Moscow – the reshuffle in the Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday is an attempt to bridge this gap.
“One of the first priorities is likely to be tackling rampant corruption in the ministry. The latest estimate from Russia's chief military prosecutor suggests that up to 40 percent of all procurement funds are stolen – for example, its troops in Ukraine were given cheap Chinese walkie-talkies rather than secure radios that are protected they were promised,” the material says.
The new head of the Ministry of Defense Bilousov quickly fired three deputy ministers from Shoigu’s team and there have already been new arrests, including the former chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov, who was detained on Monday on corruption charges. However, “not all the dead wood has been swept away.”
“Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov turned out to be a bad wartime leader: unimaginative, inflexible, wasteful towards soldiers and suspicious towards his comrades. … According to custom, the Minister of Defense himself chooses his senior soldier, but for now that Putin seems to want Gerasimov to stay, saying on Wednesday that he does not envisage changes in the general staff,” the journalist recalls.
The author noted that the major reshuffles indicate that Putin envisions a long war of attrition, which he believes will depend on marshaling what he sees as Russia's three key strengths: its military-industrial complex, its population and its will to win.
“In many ways, the Soviet system, from the planned, militarized economy to one-party politics, is returning. Even according to official statements, security spending has more than doubled to 6.7 percent of GDP (The real figure is most likely higher.) Putin outlined a six-year plan for the nation, and the state and private economies are again merging,” the article says.
The author of the article points out that the creation of a permanently warring state has many positive advantages for the government – this means that the state will more carefully control the economy, so those close to Putin will have more opportunities to steal. Also, in a militarized state, it is easier to justify the suppression of critical voices and there is an alibi for all unfulfilled promises on the economy, infrastructure and social security.
“This will not end in Ukraine. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that this conflict will be resolved in the next few years, but in any case, Putin has made it clear that he perceives this, in essence, as a proxy war with West. There is no reliable evidence.” that he has a desire to start a direct conflict with NATO, but he considers himself to be someone who is already at war – economic, political, cultural and social – with the West,” says Galeotti.
According to him, dictator Putin understands that by any traditional measure the West is much more powerful – NATO's combined GDP is more than 20 times that of Russia.
“However, the Russians are also skilled geopolitical guerrillas who take the battlefield to where they are strongest and we are weakest. This is Putin's new empire: a militarized authoritarian Russia that seeks to wage global political, diplomatic and economic warfare with the West, even trying to suppress resistance in Ukraine,” the expert sums up.
Recall that it was previously reported that the political scientist explained why China will continue to support Putin.
In addition, we previously reported that Biden was trapped by promises of help and fear of escalating war in Ukraine.
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