Scientists at the University of Washington and Institute performance and health evaluation (IHME) in the US predicted that by the end of the century the number of people on Earth will start to decline, which may lead to demographic disaster. About the gloomy future of mankind reported in the journal Lancet.
Researchers estimate, in 2060 the number of people on the planet will increase by two billion people. However, in a few decades the birth rate will fall, and countries such as Italy and Japan, will lose up to half of its population. Although this is potentially better for the environment, the increasing proportion of elderly people and the decreasing share of young will create economic problems, as well as strike the health and social support.
To 2064 year the number of people will reach 9.7 billion people and by 2100 will be reduced to 8.8 billion. This is contrary to previous estimates, according to which the end of the century the population will increase to 12.3 billion people and will not shrink. However, in the new work the researchers used an improved model based on cohort fertility — the average number of children born by a group of women of a certain age (in this case, up to 50 years).
According to the results of the model significantly drops the birth rate in Africa. For example in the countries South of the Sahara, one woman has, an average of 4.7 newborns. In particular, in Nigeria in 2017 this figure reached a record seven births per woman. By 2100, it will fall to 1.8. Japan’s population will fall from 128 million to 60 million, and in China will fall below one billion.
The number of people over 80 years will increase approximately six times. This will require additional resources to support the level of health. One way to cope with the crisis for some countries can be a proper immigration policy and support for large families. At the same time restricting access to reproductive health can result in devastating consequences, write the authors.
