After Poland's commitment to return draft dodgers back to Ukraine, many speculate that the men will leave for other countries to avoid mobilization.
Poland promised Ukraine to help in the repatriation of men hiding from mobilization on its territory. This raises complex ethical questions and could negatively impact the Polish economy.
Forbes writes about this.
The authors of the article note that a significant part of Ukrainian men who have received temporary asylum in Poland will try to move to other countries to avoid military service.
According to journalists, more than a million Ukrainians found salvation from the war in Poland. Almost 371 thousand of them are men of military age who, by law, can be drafted into the army during war. There are no reliable statistics yet on how many of them have real grounds for postponing mobilization.
Most Ukrainian citizens who came to Poland after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion received temporary protection there. This status allows them to work and receive government services even without a valid ID. This provision is implemented until June 30 of this year, and it is not yet known whether the Polish government will extend its effect.
In such a situation, Poland may lose part of the labor force its economy received after the arrival of Ukrainian refugees. Together with men, members of their families may also leave the country. And those who for some reason cannot leave will join the ranks of illegal immigrants or move into the shadow sector of the economy.
The agreement to simplify the execution of court decisions in both countries, signed by Warsaw and Kiev, means that sentences in absentia for draft dodgers handed down in Ukraine will be executed in Poland.
“If this happens on a large scale, there may be a mass exodus of Ukrainian citizens of military age from Poland,” noted Andrey Arkanyuk, a specialist in employment legalization at the employment agency Contrain Group.
According to the UN Refugee Agency, the contribution of Ukrainian refugees to Poland’s GDP in 2023 amounted to 0.7-1.1%, and in the long term could grow to 0.9-1.35%.
At the same time, revenues of the Polish government sector increased by $2.5-3.4 billion in 2022 and by $3.6-4.9 billion in 2023. This was due to an increase in the wage bill, growth in private consumption and the influx of foreign capital. At the same time, government spending on refugees amounted to $3.75 billion in the first year of the war and only $1.25 billion last year.
In addition, many Ukrainian refugees prefer to run their own business. In 2023, almost 10% of the total number of start-ups in Poland were registered by Ukrainian refugees, with the vast majority working in the field of construction, information, communications and other services. Such a trend would have long-term prospects for the development of the Polish economy, but now the situation is becoming difficult to predict.
In addition to the negative impact on the economy, the Polish government's promises have sparked debate over the ethics of such a decision. For example, the governments of Germany and Estonia have already declared the unacceptability of repatriation of persons who have been officially granted asylum.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that Ukraine should “take the initiative” to create a mechanism for implementing the agreement on the implementation of court decisions and repatriation, since for Poland this is “ethically ambiguous.”
“Although we, of course, understand that Ukraine needs defenders to protect its Motherland,” added Sikorsky.
Recall that Poland extradited to Ukraine two men liable for military service who tried to swim across the Tisza River to illegally cross the border. According to the State Border Service, both incidents occurred on the Easter weekend of May 4 and 5.
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