Many experts and politicians say that this spring-summer will be decisive in the war. This is already an axiom. I will try to explain why we need to inflict a crushing defeat on the aggressor this year. And what will happen if this does not happen.
It's not about advancing: what really matters to the enemy
The under-empire is preparing an offensive. Various sources claim that about 300,000 fighters have been trained, of which 50,000 are well trained and equipped. The directions of the main attacks are the Donbass and Zaporozhye, as well as diversionary attacks on Kyiv and Nikolaev, Odessa. That is, all along the front.
The Russians are counting on the fact that to deter these strikes, Ukraine will be forced to bring into battle high-quality reserves, which are now being prepared in allied countries. That is, this is how we will spend our offensive potential.
It is clear that neither Kyiv nor Odessa will be taken by the enemies. The aggressor's troops are unlikely to have any serious advance at all. Unless the situation repeats itself last summer, when the under-empire practically entered the administrative borders of the Lugansk region.
For the Russians, it is important before the fall of 2023 to finally transfer the hostilities into a protracted positional form. Turn everything into a war of attrition. Because in such a war, Ukraine has minimal chances.
Russians are able to fight for years with old Soviet weapons
Yes, modern weapons are running out in a non-empire, and we are getting more and more. But the old, Soviet era remains there. Old D-30 howitzers shoot inaccurately, but they shoot. And the old unprotected T-55 tank moves slowly but also shoots.
Humble “mobiks” without reliable body armor and communications, armed with “Kalash”, crawl forward and also shoot towards our positions. They die like flies on the streets of Soledar, but they crawl.
According to the laws of large numbers, some of these shells and bullets will hit our soldiers. And on the other side, the resources of manpower are ten times greater. As it turned out, no one feels sorry for them in the under-empire. Neither the generals fighting in the Stalinist style, nor the relatives and friends of the “mobiks” going to the slaughter, nor the most mobilized, who, with longing and hopelessness, but crawl to the slaughter.
In such a regime, stupidly crushing the mobilized and firing from Soviet weapons, the under-empire, unfortunately, is capable of fighting for years. And in a few years, a Republican president may come to power in the United States and support for Ukraine will most likely decrease significantly. This is exactly what the Kremlin is counting on.
Accordingly, Ukraine needs to turn the tide this year and not allow the enemy to drag out the war, where he will receive a resource advantage in manpower.
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UAF must de-occupy territories from the enemy
It is necessary, by competent maneuvering, to hold back the offensive, which will begin in February, to wear down the enemy, and then to bring reserves into battle and carry out a swift counterattack. That is, to repeat what we have already seen in the performance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov and Kherson.
The liberation of the occupied territories must be large-scale and as demonstrative as possible, so that internal political upheavals begin in the under-empire. You see, they don’t care about losses there, but they react extremely painfully to a defeat that cannot be hidden. Hysterically, I would say.
So the directions of our counteroffensive are quite obvious. It can be:
- advance towards the Crimea with entry to the peninsula to the Krasnoperekopsk line;
- or the liberation of Donbass. Moreover, it is not at all necessary to storm Luhansk and Donetsk directly, it is enough to blockade them and cut off the supply routes for weapons and ammunition.
This task seems quite realistic, given that the corps, formed from the inhabitants of Donbass, practically bled. The aggressor army did not consider Donbass to be its Russian territory, and does not consider it now. She will not defend it especially stubbornly.
What will happen if the counteroffensive does not occur
Our successful counteroffensive gives a good chance for productive negotiations at fair conditions for the cessation of hostilities. Of course, this will not be a strong peace, but a temporary pause.
But we will have the opportunity to seriously strengthen our defense capability, primarily through our own production. There will also be a chance to engage in a targeted collapse of the under-empire from within, which is vital for Ukraine.
In the end: everything that is necessary, first of all, a large-scale de-occupation, must be carried out this year. Otherwise, we will be bombarded with “cannon fodder” and rusty iron.
