Key points
- Following a meeting between Keith Kellogg and Alexander Lukashenko, Belarusian opposition figure Sergei Tikhanovsky was released.
- Political scientist Petr Oleshchuk believes that the release of political prisoners was only a pretext for Kellogg’s visit; the real goal was other negotiations.
- Lukashenko is trying to balance between various geopolitical centers in order to maintain power and avoid annexation by Russia.
Following a meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and Keith Kellogg, Belarusian opposition figure Sergei Tikhanovsky was released. His imprisonment in 2020 led to mass protests in Belarus.
In fact, the release of political prisoners is just a pretext for Kellogg's visit. Political scientist Petr Oleshchuk expressed this opinion to Channel 24, noting that Donald Trump is indifferent to the fate of Belarusian prisoners.
Lukashenko tries to balance
The release of the regime's prisoners was only a pretext, and we still do not know the key details of the conversation between Kellogg and Lukashenko. It was officially reported that the negotiations lasted 6 hours. From this it is clear that the US allocates a certain role for the Belarusian dictator.
Perhaps they offered him something, wanted something in return. Recently, Lukashenko has been trying to balance between various geopolitical centers. He understands that it is quite difficult for him to maintain power in the current conditions, the political scientist said.
In addition, Lukashenko understands that despite the fact that he has constantly supported Putin, sooner or later the head of the Kremlin may resort to direct annexation of Belarus. Therefore, he is trying to balance his power, strengthen relations with China.
Perhaps it was he who initiated the negotiations with Kellogg, and as a cover he decided to carry out the release of political prisoners. I don’t think that anyone in the Trump administration really thought about them, – added Peter Oleshchuk.
It is not worth excluding that after this meeting the US will partially ease sanctions against Lukashenko. So, there are many options for the development of events. It is clearly known that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus is not an independent player.
Recall that Trump's special representative Keith Kellogg arrived in Belarus on June 21, 2025. He met with Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. The Belarusian dictator said that he was very happy about the meeting and promised that Kellogg would be safe and there would be no escalation.
