Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine united the countries of Western Europe more than any event since World War II.
The nations that were neutral provided the Ukrainians with weapons; governments that have not lived up to their NATO defense obligations for years have made impressive strides. In addition, countries that had deep economic ties with Russia are severing that connection. Just over a month ago, no one could have seriously predicted such moves.
The unprecedented unity of the West over sanctions, political action and military support, despite Putin's threats and war, leaves many Europeans optimistic that the continent will be better prepared in countering security threats.
This is especially true for the Scandinavian countries: Norway, Sweden and Finland.The fate of these three countries is closely connected with the events in Ukraine, therefore also in the spotlight, in particular, because of their unique connection with Europe and Russia.
Finland and Norway share land borders with Russia, although the latter significantly less by 200 km compared to the 1200 km border of Finland. Norway, the westernmost of the three countries, is a NATO member but not a member of the European Union, while Finland and Sweden are a member of the EU but not NATO.
All three countries have historically maintained a low-key and non-confrontational approach in relations with the Russian Federation, including since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition, all three are also members of the EU's Schengen area, which means that the borders between the three countries are open.
It is these last two factors that have played an important role in the serious rethinking of European security in the last three weeks: how is it possible to conduct a policy of non-confrontation if a massive piece of land with Russia remains open at the same time?
Who's next?
According to a representative of the European defense establishment, “if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, then we are already asking the question, who is next?” They added that due to the open borders between the three countries, any compromise on the Finnish border is “traumatic” for the peninsula.
“Finland and Sweden suddenly broke their longstanding position of not exporting arms to combat zones and sending military equipment to Ukraine, which was the biggest shock for Europeans in terms of the reaction of the Nordic countries – and, I suspect, for Putin,” said Charlie Salonius. Pasternak is a leading researcher in global security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He expects bolder moves from the three countries in connection with the commitments made in the Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO) Vision 2025, which outlines plans for closer military cooperation between five Nordic countries with different relationships to NATO and the EU.
“If all of a sudden Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland stockpile weapons and unite with other countries and coordinate their actions, then these will become territories with tight security measures operating across the borders of the EU and NATO. And this will really complicate the life of Russia,” – said Salonius-Pasternak.
Putin has destroyed the balance
The severity and strength of the Nordic countries raised the question of the prospect of Finland joining NATO.
< p>Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb believes that joining NATO is much more likely because Putin has destroyed the stable balance that Finland has maintained for many years.
“Strategically, we have always wanted to keep joining NATO in the long run as a deterrent to stop Russia from aggressive behavior. We maintained a balance of compatibility of our armed forces with NATO, without joining the bloc, “Stubb said in an interview with CNN. However, he considers Putin's actions impossible to achieve this balance. “Finland is driven by what I call rational fear. We see Russian aggression and do not want to be left alone, as we were during the Second World War. “While joining NATO would be an important statement, it will not change much in a world where Putin's actions are widely protested.
< p>“Over the years, Finland and Sweden have taken steps to soften the fact that they are not members of the Alliance by strengthening ties with the US, the UK and other members of the transatlantic community,” says Haakon Lunde Saksi, associate professor at the Norwegian Defense University. According to Saksy, closer cooperation between the Nordic countries in the field of security makes the region less vulnerable, which in a sense goes beyond membership in the EU and NATO.
A completely different Europe
“The strongest message of the last few weeks was unity. First, Denmark and Sweden delivered lethal equipment to Ukraine, then Finland and Norway. The severity of the situation united the country into greater cooperation, and this makes the defense more reliable against any adversary,” adds Saxxy. .
Putin and his allowances may be hard to understand, but their barbaric war against Ukraine has spurred part of Europe, previously bowing to Russia, to cardinal action.
If only this horror had not ended , we may wake up in a completely different Europe, almost unrecognizable compared to the one that Putin could intimidate with gas and rhetoric. And some of the fiercest opponents may be waiting right outside his gates.
