~6 0~p>Everything will depend on Ukraine.
The closer to the US elections, which will take place on November 5, the more in the West talk about the need to start negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian authorities are already talking about this cautiously. In a recent interview with the BBC, Vladimir Zelensky said that with the support of its allies, Ukraine can “try to end the hot stage of the war by the end of this year.” “This does not mean that all territories are conquered by force. I think that the power of diplomacy can help,” the president added.
The Western proposals in the commentary on TSN.ua were assessed by the director of the security program of the studios of the Council of Foreign Policy “Ukrainian Prism” Anna Shelest.
Is there pressure on Ukraine and what will Russia ask for
Over the past six months, the question has constantly been raised at various closed venues whether Ukraine is capable of defeating the Russian Federation on the battlefield. After the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the fall of 2022, when we liberated the Kharkov region and the right bank of the Kherson region, as well as our successful strikes on Crimea, the conversation was that Ukraine was really capable of somehow liberating all its territories by military means.
“Yes, even then it was discussed whether it was possible to end the war without the liberation of Crimea or Donbass, to decide something later in negotiations… But there was confidence that Ukraine was capable of making a breakthrough on the battlefield. In the last six months, there have been more and more frequent questions about what concessions Ukraine is ready to make, and whether it is worth sitting down at the negotiating table, because the Russians have more resources: this is a burden for the economy and mobilization is difficult; what if the Americans stop giving you weapons;
That is, according to the expert, in fact we see a very serious manipulation, and therefore very different options are offered on international platforms.
In the international media, comments by Western leaders and experts, three main topics are circulating that could be “on the table” for possible negotiations with Russia:
According to Anna Shelest, Ukraine’s membership in NATO at the level of individual experts or politicians (this is in almost every country, even those who are our greatest friends) from different countries is very polar.
Some believe that demonstrating that Ukraine is not in NATO is the biggest mistake.
“And now, after two and a half years of war, they believe that NATO is the only option to secure Ukraine from a repeat of Russian aggression”, – says Anna Shelest.
Others believe that abandoning NATO is the easiest way, because no one owes anyone anything, because the Alliance simply will not make decisions on the defense of Ukraine in the future.
“Sanctions are where too (West – (ed.) are ready to make concessions and offer these options, believing that sanctions can be negotiated with the Russian Federation. And here, in principle, there will be no violation of international law if they abandon the sanctions. As for the territories (concessions to the Russian Federation – ed.) – this is the most difficult question, because here they start talking: firstly, is Ukraine capable of winning back all its territories, and to what extent is Ukraine ready to integrate these territories, which have been under occupation for 10 years, do we have the money for this, how ready are we to work with a society under occupation, etc.,” — Anna Shelest notes.
The most interesting thing, according to her, is that most experts on international platforms believe that Crimea can be given to Russia, because, they say, it is psychologically important for the Kremlin.
“But when you start demonstrating that Ukraine's greatest military successes are precisely in the Crimean and Black Sea directions, fellow experts are stupefied. If we ask the question, will Ukraine be pressured to negotiate with the Russian Federation? Yes, they will be constantly from different countries. It's not even pressure, but something like: maybe this will be better for you… But ultimately, everything will depend on Ukraine, to what extent we can build rational arguments why this or that option does not suit us. on sanctions. But, on the other hand, we understand perfectly well that the logic of the Russian Federation, as soon as they get at least something on one point, this will immediately make them ask for more and consider that they have won”, – Anna Shelest summed up.
Earlier, the expert spoke about the position of the European Union regarding the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
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