The leader of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov again found himself in the spotlight because of possible health problems.
The other day, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense explained why Ramzan Kadyrov is still alive, despite his own statements about the “very serious condition” of the head of Chechnya.
“He experiences this serious condition from time to time. He was treated in the United Arab Emirates. Many treatments were carried out in Russia (including Moscow). Apparently, he is alive,” said the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Major General Vadim Skibitsky in an interview. Ukrainian Pravda.”
Kadyrov’s illness and Russia’s reaction
It is noteworthy that the Kremlin has not officially commented on Ukrainian intelligence information about Kadyrov’s serious condition. On social networks and YouTube, numerous “experts” from among the “good Russians” began to massively disseminate information about Kadyrov’s critical health condition and even his death.
Amid rumors, on September 17, a personal video of Kadyrov himself appeared on the social networks of the Kremlin-controlled head of Chechnya for the first time in two weeks. In the video, Kadyrov refutes the information from the Main Investigation Department of the Moscow Regional Institution and “experts” about the serious state of his health.
Who benefits from rumors about Kadyrov’s illness and death
First of all – to Kadyrov himself. The Russian dictator has raised the issue of liquidating all private military companies on the territory of the Russian Federation, including those formed on a national basis.
The point is that Prigozhin’s so-called “march of justice” was used by the Russian dictator to liquidate all private military companies in one form or another (PMCs are officially banned there) existing in Russia. And there were plenty of them, subordinate to state corporations. Rostec, Roscosmos, Gazprom (PMC Potok, Fakel and a couple more) and more had “pocket armies”. Plus – PMCs under the Ministry of Defense. All of them acted outside the legal framework of Russia.
Until recently, according to various estimates, there were from 30 to 45 thousand personnel under Kadyrov’s command, which were in fact not subordinate to the security forces of the Russian Federation, and their leadership was exercised personally by Kadyrov and a person close to him, Delimkhanov.
Accordingly, this state of affairs could not satisfy the Russian dictator, because it is in the presence of private armies that the Russian authorities see the main threat to their existence on the territory of the Russian Federation.
How Kadyrov personally signed his own death warrant
It is quite noteworthy that on February 19, 2023, Kadyrov announced that after a possible resignation he would create a private military company, which, according to him, would compete with the Wagner PMC. Making such statements in general was a big political and military mistake by Kadyrov himself. Because making such statements is like signing a death sentence.
Let's look at the chronology of the conflict situation around Kadyrov. Here we should mention the events that took place in May, namely Prigozhin’s statements about the possibility of withdrawing the Wagner PMC from Bakhmut. On May 6, Prigozhin makes relevant statements and makes it clear that he would like to see units subordinate to Kadyrov in place of the Wagner PMC. And already on the seventh, Kadyrov answered Prigozhin in a rather rude manner, saying that they would call Prigozhin on the phone and explain where and how he would go. Kadyrov did not take into account the fact that Prigozhin is far from an independent figure, and, accordingly, he is backed by such persons as those close to Putin, the Kiriyenkos and the Kovalchuk family, and the structure of the Wagner PMC itself was created in the silence of the offices of the GRU of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation . This was Kadyrov's second big mistake.
Accordingly, Prigozhin is being used here as an information and military battering ram against Kadyrov. But the last straw is the Muslim marches throughout Russia, which are purely demonstrative and a show of force. Just like Kadyrov’s public statements on this matter. Moreover, there are threats from Kadyrov against Russian media personalities regarding the ban on the construction of a mosque in Moscow. The question hung in the air, but, as they say, the spoon was taken away, but the sediment remained. And he remained with the central authorities, who understood that Kadyrov was trying to Kadyrize all of Russia, that is, to influence political processes not only in Chechnya, but throughout the entire territory of the Russian Federation. And against the backdrop of the growth of the Muslim question, the presence of armed formations subordinate to Kadyrov (I would like to emphasize once again that, according to the maximum estimate, this is more than 40 thousand, and well-trained and equipped) created corresponding questions regarding the future fate of both Kadyrov himself and the units subordinate to him.
Russian special services are not interested in Kadyrov himself, but in something else.< /h2>
Russian intelligence services are not so much interested in Kadyrov as they are in neutralizing his private military company. The same regiment “Akhmat” and other units.
And let's look further at the events that took place after the withdrawal of the Wagner PMC from Bakhmut. On May 31, Prigozhin records a video in which he says that Kadyrov’s troops can liberate several settlements in the Donetsk region, but not take control of the entire territory of the region controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
This again causes a violent reaction from both Kadyrov and his inner circle. The video is recorded by Kadyrov’s first deputies Daudov and Delimkhanov, where they try to communicate with Prigozhin in a humiliating manner. What was the answer? Tough, on the part of Prigozhin’s first deputy Utkin, better known as “Wagner” or “Ninth”. Actually, with the light hand of Dmitry Utkin, the PMC received the name “Wagner”. Utkin reminded these two characters that he knew them from the first and second Chechen wars, and then they stood on opposite sides of the barricades. It also makes it clear that the PMC is not an organization with which you can talk in such tones.
In this case, interesting processes begin – on June 12, units subordinate to Kadyrov enter into agreements with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Let me remind you that on June 10, the Minister of Defense of the occupying country, Shoigu, issued a statement that an order had been signed that all private military companies must sign direct agreements with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. That is, we are talking about the fact that both “Akhmat” and other units subordinate directly to Kadyrov are deprived of their subjectivity. They are transferred under the command of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, and then they lose the opportunity to influence processes.
It is noteworthy that from this time on, information about Kadyrov’s health problems, his poisoning and the liquidation of his personal doctor began to be circulated in the Ukrainian media. Moreover, it should be said that the analysis of the situation, which is given in general, allows us to say that this type of information was disseminated by Kadyrov’s inner circle. Moreover, with the liquidation of the doctor there were several serious mistakes, but this is a separate topic. However, since July we can talk about the beginning of an information wave around the possible death of Kadyrov and, accordingly, his poisoning or liquidation.
How Kadyrov is trying to save himself
< p>No one cared about the fact that if there was no information about Kadyrov’s funeral, then the information about his death was not true. Let me remind conspiracy theorists that Kadyrov is, after all, the son of the former mufti of Chechnya. Since the Koran strictly prohibits cremation, Muslims are obliged to bury their relatives and loved ones in a cemetery. Moreover, it is recommended to do this as soon as possible after the person’s death.
I draw the attention of conspiracy theorists to the operation of the Russian special services using the example of Kadyrov’s father himself, who was blown up at the stadium, not counting the numerous casualties among civilians and, accordingly, those closest to him. This was an exemplary liquidation and Ramzan Kadyrov understands the possible scenarios very well. That is why the mechanism is launched – it acts proactively to make the very fact of its physical liquidation impossible. This is the practice of the special services: if some details of a special operation are known, and even more so about the so-called active nature of the operation, then the publication of information makes it possible to reduce the risks of carrying out these operations. This is what Kadyrov was counting on.
What will happen to Chechnya if Kadyrov dies
As for the situation in Chechnya, there will be no unrest there. This is either a general lack of understanding of the traditions of Chechnya, or an attempt to pass off wishful thinking. Chechnya is a teip (clan) character, and Kadyrov, firstly, belongs to one of the greatest teips in Chechnya. Secondly, he has been in power for virtually 20 years, and during this time he has created a rigid chain of command. In all major positions, his closest relatives or people whom he completely trusts. That is, if we count on mass protest movements on the territory of Chechnya, this raises certain questions. The Russian Federation, represented by the Russian dictator and the Russian special services, if necessary, will replace one feudal lord with another, who, unlike Kadyrov, will have no special political ambitions. This is Kadyrov’s big mistake, because he probably counted on the fact that the so-called special operation would lower Putin’s personal rating and shake his absolute power on the territory of the Russian Empire.
And, accordingly, Kadyrov tried to take advantage of this. By the way, it is quite indicative that Kadyrov refused to mobilize on the territory of Chechnya on September 22, 2022. That is, a year ago he declared that Russian mobilization would not take place in Chechnya, and this was a challenge to the central Russian authorities. And, accordingly, even then it became clear that he was getting out of control and mechanisms would be put in place to return the situation to a controlled course. What we are seeing now. Now the liquidation of its combat detachments is underway – their subordination to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and their actual disposal on the line of combat. Moreover, it is not only Kadyrov’s detachments that are being disposed of, but also other military units created on ethnic grounds.
The same fate befell the two Ossetian battalions that were sent to the Zaporozhye direction, because they were actually cut out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces “to the knee,” that is, they suffered catastrophic losses. That is, in this way the Russian Federation is trying to solve two issues for itself: the elimination, in their understanding, of illegal armed groups, and changes in the demographic nature of the territories of the North Caucasus. That is, the Russians are destroying the male population and using the so-called SVO to resolve their issues.
Against the background of these events, Kadyrov analyzes several scenarios and understands, by analogy with his father, that different situations are possible regarding him. And now the main question is how interested the Russian special services are now in eliminating Kadyrov and what this might look like?
Here it comes down to the imagination of the performer and the customer directly. We won’t get ahead of ourselves, but the version with “Novichok,” which was previously voiced by the “good Russian” Nevzorov, better known to Ukrainian TV viewers as the author of the film “Purgatory,” which glorified the Russian army during the Chechen campaigns, is not viable. Meanwhile, it was he who tried to convince us that Kadyrov was poisoned by Novichok, drawing parallels with the Violinist, who was poisoned in England. But if they wanted to poison the Violinist, then they poisoned him.
It’s frankly a circus performance that we are watching with Kadyrov, we have been discussing everything for at least three months now – what’s wrong with his face, how bad he looks, but he’s alive . There are many options for liquidation – it all depends on the performer.
If the Russian special services can liquidate Kadyrov, when will this happen
Events that could provoke the Russian special services to eliminate Kadyrov have already occurred. This is a refusal to carry out mobilization activities on the territory of the Chechen Republic, an attempt to create its own VAT on the territory of the Russian Federation, although the activities of the VAT on the territory of the Russian Federation are officially prohibited. This is also an attempt to influence political processes within the Russian Federation itself and the growth of the Muslim factor in the Russian Federation. All these components give reason to say that the Russian special services have taken the path of neutralizing the very nature of possible troubles.
There is no leader – there is no one to lead. And how they can liquidate, let’s see how they liquidated representatives of the Chechen resistance movement. There were many scenarios. Dudayev was eliminated by a missile strike, and a “good Russian” who is now not leaving the Ukrainian media spoke to him on the phone. Let's also remember Basayev and Maskhadov. And it depends on many factors which scenario will be implemented.
Who can lead the Chechens after the death of Kadyrov
I would like to emphasize one more fact – Daniil Martynov, who was in charge of the security bloc, that is, Kadyrov’s right hand, was not an ethnic Chechen. Therefore, I do not rule out that perhaps a Russian general or governor will be appointed. Maybe one of the representatives of the conditional opposition or close to Kadyrov himself, the same Delimkhanov, who will be explained the rules of conduct and will agree to them. Moreover, Delimkhanov stopped resisting the Russian authorities under the personal guarantees of Kadyrov himself, and, in fact, he is on the hook of the Russian special services. Therefore, there are plenty of candidates. Speaking in Russian: “A holy place is never empty.”
< p>Regarding the unrest in Chechnya and how this could affect Russian control and the positions of Putin himself. I answer – in no way. Let me emphasize once again – do not count on any scenarios of mass protest movements. Russia is a totalitarian country. Putin perfectly took into account possible scenarios, and after the so-called Prigozhin rebellion, when everyone said that the position of the Russian dictator had weakened, he, on the contrary, granted expanded powers to the Russian Guard and transferred heavy armored vehicles to it. The Russian Guard is a gendarme unit for suppressing mass uprisings on the territory of the Russian Federation. For this they need heavy armored vehicles. Here is the answer to your questions. The scenarios were worked out even at the time of the rebellion, because the Russian dictator signed this order on the day of the so-called Prigozhin rebellion, which indicates the strengthening of his personal vertical of power. And the second order, excluding mass protest movements, was also signed on this day on the possibility of detaining any Russian without a court decision for 30 days for violating the CTO (counter-terrorist operation) regime.
Possible further scenarios of the Russian special services are a game for a long time. And this is a response to the scenarios that are currently being produced.
Recall that on September 15, 2023, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Andrei Yusov said that the head of Kremlin-controlled Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov is in a very serious condition. “We can confirm that he (Kadyrov – ed.) has another severe exacerbation and has been in a very serious condition for the last few days,” he said.
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