Israel's plan to attack Hamas in southern Gaza will likely resemble the offensive in the north, but will be complicated by the large number of civilians in the area.
Israel is shifting the focus of its military campaign to southern Gaza, where it could face the toughest stage of a six-week war as it tries to defeat Hamas and return hostages amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.
The Wall Street Journal writes about this in its article.
The Israeli army has largely succeeded in establishing control over the northern part of Gaza. But according to senior Israeli officers and analysts, the IDF has only partially destroyed Hamas's military capabilities, without capturing or killing many of the organization's top leaders.
In recent days, Israel Defense Forces commanders have signaled a move to southern Gaza, suggesting that many Hamas fighters fled after Israeli troops moved in and that some leaders are in densely populated cities or underground tunnels where there is less airstrikes and fighting.
The authors of the material note that Hamas will almost certainly prove to be a more determined opponent in the south, where the militants have few options other than to fight. Former Israeli officers say the hostages are Hamas leaders' best leverage to survive the Israeli army's move to the south as the militants want at least a temporary cessation of hostilities.
“Israel's plan to attack Hamas in the south will likely resemble its offensive in the north, but it will be complicated by the large number of civilians now massed in the area, Israeli officials and commanders say,” the report said.
“We are determined to continue to move forward. This will happen wherever Hamas is, and also in the southern part of the Gaza Strip,” Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on November 17.
What the US is saying about Israel's increased operations
U.S. officials are urging Israel to delay intensified operations in southern Gaza while the state considers plans to protect the large number of citizens who have fled fighting in the north.
“We believe that their operations should not continue until these people – these civilians – are included in their military planning. We will convey this directly to them,” US Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer said on November 19.
He added that Israel must narrow “the area of active fighting by clarifying where citizens can seek refuge from the fighting” in the south.
IDF plans in southern Gaza
Israeli officials say they have no choice but to invade southern and central Gaza to achieve their goal of removing Hamas from power in response to the Oct. 7 attack.
Today, southern Gaza is home to almost all of its roughly two million local residents. Their food supplies are decreasing, there is not enough clean water, and there is no electricity. Rising Palestinian casualties – more than 12,000 dead, according to Gaza health authorities – will only add to international pressure on Israel to stop fighting.
One of Israel's goals in the south will be to seal off the border with Egypt, including the tunnels underneath, to prevent Hamas from delivering more weapons and preventing its leaders from fleeing Gaza.
Israel's main targets are Hamas's highest leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and the Hamas military commander accused of coordinating the October 7 attacks, Mohammed Deif.
The report noted that Israeli warplanes are likely to intensify their bombing of Khan Yunis and Rafah, densely populated urban areas in the south riddled with Hamas tunnels, such as in Gaza in the north. It is likely that ground forces will then advance on multiple fronts, isolating Hamas strongholds and slowly clearing them of militants above ground.
“They will move slowly. First, bombardment from the air, sea and land, and then infantry and tanks,” said retired Israeli officer and former intelligence official Eyal Pinko.
The article said that as the search for hostages continues in southern Gaza, Israel may find it increasingly difficult to determine which militant tunnels can be destroyed without threatening the people they hold.
Israeli military spokesman Lt. Col. Richard Hecht highlighted the complex tactical challenges commanders face as they weigh their next moves in the south: “I can't tell you what our operational plan is. We haven't decided yet.”
Problems with civilians in the southern Gaza Strip
The authors of the publication point out that the Palestinians, now trapped in the southern part of the enclave, have no viable way to leave it. Indeed, in the south, the Rafah border with Egypt remains closed to everyone except those who have special permits – these are, as a rule, foreign citizens. In the north, Gaza is now almost uninhabitable after more than a month of war.
In recent days, Israeli warplanes have dropped leaflets in southern Gaza, encouraging residents to flee to an area called al-Mawasi, a strip of farmland about a half-mile wide and 9 miles long along the Mediterranean coast. Israel says it wants to create a safe humanitarian zone in the area, while U.N. officials have said the idea is unfeasible.
Some Israeli military officials acknowledge that it would be impossible to herd two million Gazans into al-Mawasi, which is the size of Los Angeles' LAX airport. However, the operation in the south will require displacing Palestinian civilians from certain towns and areas, Israeli officials say.
“We are going to do a local evacuation for a short period of time. Later, when we withdraw, we will bring them back. It is very difficult. I know what it sounds like, and I know what it will look like, but we have no alternative,” he said. Reserve Major General Tamir Heyman, Managing Director of the Israel Institute for National Security Studies.
US intelligence estimates the current phase of Israel's military operation in northern Gaza will last weeks before troops return to the south. Israel itself has not indicated a timetable for the development of the offensive.
Leaders of U.N. humanitarian agencies and other major aid groups have rejected Israel's idea of creating a humanitarian or security zone in parts of southern Gaza, arguing that civilians must be protected from attack wherever they are. The UN also called on Israel to reverse the initial demand for Palestinians to leave northern Gaza, calling it an act of forced displacement.
Let us recall that on November 18, the Israeli army announced that it was expanding operations in the Gaza Strip, in particular in the Zeitoun and Jabaliya areas.
▶ On the TSN YouTube channel you can watch the video at this link: Gaza Strip without connection! Netanyahu is finding it increasingly difficult to find support
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