The electricity deficit figures will depend on the weather and demand, as well as whether there will be shelling.
The IMF predicts that the peak electricity deficit in Ukraine this winter could reach 3-4 gigawatts. However, public utilities will experience a lesser deficit.
This was announced by the head of the IMF mission in Ukraine Trevor Lessard, Interfax-Ukraine writes.
Lessard noted that key sectors, including healthcare and defense, will be more resilient to electricity shortages.
He emphasized that electricity shortage indicators may change depending on weather conditions, demand, and repair work. He also noted that it is difficult to assess the impact of the deficit on the Ukrainian economy, since it depends not only on available generating capacity and import capabilities, but also on demand for electricity.
The IMF representative emphasized that the Ukrainian authorities had previously identified critical sectors as priorities in the event of an electricity shortage. Regarding imports, Lessard noted that one of the solutions to cover the deficit is imports from Europe, but Ukraine faces technological limitations in the volume of imported energy.
Lessard reported that the maximum capacity of electricity imports to Ukraine is currently 2-2.1 gigawatts, which is insignificant for Eastern European economies. He also noted that European countries have additional reserves, including new “green” energy that can be supplied to the grid.
Recall that in Ukraine this year, long-term power outages are possible due to the loss of more than half of generating capacity as a result of Russian attacks. If the temperature drops to -10° and the nuclear power plants are disabled, the outages could last up to 20 hours a day.
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